Weekly Newsletter 04/09/05
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Market Summary Weekly Breakout Report Top Breakout Choices Top 2nd Chances New Features Tip of the Week
 Weekly Commentary  

All three major indexes made gains this week for the first time since March 4. The DJI gained 0.55%, the NASDAQ Composite 0.73%, making it the best performer of the week, with the S&P 500 close behind with a gain of 0.71%. On Monday, the DJI found support at its 200 day moving average level and closed higher starting a 4 day run of gains which came to an end with profit taking on Friday. The NASDAQ, which was below its 200 day moving average when the week began, also succumbed to profit taking on Friday, as did the S&P 500. Friday's volume was quite low, however, so the reversal was not a strong cause for concern. The markets' gains were mainly driven by falling oil prices, which trended lower each day this week.

Because newer, more innovative companies, are found in the NASDAQ Composite index, it is that index which is of most interest to followers of the CANTATA methodology. Unfortunately, that index has trended downwards since the start of the year, and our market model has not yet found reason to reverse its current 'exit' signal. The low for the year was reached on March 29 and we would like to see a strong recovery within 10 sessions for our model to issue an 'enter' signal. The 10 days expire on Tuesday of next week.

The number of successful breakouts almost doubled to 25 this week, with the average gain to the end of the week being 4.5% - over six times the market average. RTSX broke out of a poorly shaped handle on Monday to make a maximum gain of 24.3% on Wednesday before closing for a gain of 14.3%. MCRI also had a poorly shaped handle but managed an intraday gain after Thursday's breakout of 17.8% before settling back for an 11.8% gain at Friday's close.

The Healthcare sector produced the most breakouts with a total of 7, followed by Retail with 5.

With the markets trending up, there were fewer confirmed breakdowns this week, just five, with three being from Flat Bases and two from ShortsaleWatch.

Although Oil prices dropped throughout the week, the Oil & Gas Drilling industry group continued to get the highest score in our industry technical rankings, which it has dominated for at least 26 weeks now.

 Market Summary Overview of market direction and industry rotation
Index Value Change Week Change YTD Market1
Signal
Dow 10461.3 0.55% -2.98% enter
NASDAQ 1999.35 0.73% -8.09% exit
S&P 500 1181.2 0.71% -2.53% enter
 Best Performing Index
1 Week 13 Weeks 26 Weeks Year-to-Date
NASDAQ Composite
0.73 %
S&P 500
0.59 %
S&P 500
-2.12 %
S&P 500
-2.53 %
 Best Performing Industry (by average technical score over each period)
1 Week 3 Weeks 13 Weeks 26 Weeks
Oil & Gas-Drilling Oil & Gas-Drilling Oil & Gas-Drilling Oil & Gas-Drilling
 Most Improved Industry (by change in technical rank2)
Special-ClsdEndFunds/US Equity
+ 51
Personal-Soap & Clng
+ 56
Electr-Scientific Instruments
+ 95
Food-Candy
+ 104
Charts of each industry rank and performance over 12 months are available on the site

1The Market Signal is derived from our proprietary market model. The market model is described on the site.
2The site also shows industry rankings based on fundamentals, combined technical and fundamentals, and on price alone (similar to IBD). The site also shows daily industry movements.
 Weekly Breakout Report How confirmed breakouts performed this week
# of Breakouts
Period Average1
Max. Gain During Period2
Gain at Period Close3
This Week 25 24.38 4.47% 0.8%
Last Week 13 23.38 6.12% 1.35%
13 Weeks 351 N/A 12.46%
0.65%
Sector
Industry
Breakout Count for Week
Healthcare
Healthcare-Products
3
Healthcare
Healthcare-Biomed/Genetic
2
Retail
Retail-Restaurant
2
Beverages
Beverages-Alcoholic
1
Computer
Computer-Integrated Sys
1
Computer Software
Comp Software-Educ/Enter
1
Computer Software
Comp Software-Healthcare
1
Electronics
Electr-Measuring Instruments
1
Electronics
Electr-Semicndtr Mfg
1
Electronics
Electr-Misc Products
1
Food
Food-Dairy Products
1
Healthcare
Healthcare-Drugs/Generic
1
Healthcare
Healthcare-Outpnt/HmCare
1
Leisure
Leisure-Products
1
Leisure
Leisure-Gaming
1
Personal
Personal-Consumer Prods
1
Real Estate/ REIT
Real Estate-REIT
1
Retail
Retail-Supermarkets
1
Retail
Retail-Apparel
1
Retail
Retail-Department Stores
1
1The average number of breakouts in each week over the previous 13 weeks.
2This represents the return if each stock were bought at its breakout price and sold at its intraday high.
3This represents the return if each stock were bought at its breakout price and sold at the most recent close.
 Top Breakout Choices Stocks on our Cup-and-Handle list with best expected gain if they breakout
Category
Symbol
Company Name
Expected Gain1
Best Overall CPWR COMPUWARE CORP 67
Top Technical NICK NICHOLAS FINANCIAL INC 15
Top Fundamental NICK NICHOLAS FINANCIAL INC 15
Top Tech. & Fund. NICK NICHOLAS FINANCIAL INC 15
1This is the gain predicted by our Expected Gain model if the stock breaks out. Expected Gains for all cup-and-handle stocks are published on our site.
 Top Second Chances Stocks that broke out this week and are still in buyable range
Category
Symbol
Company Name
Expected Gain1
Best Overall LUB LUBYS INC 43
Top Technical CYBX CYBERONICS INC -13
Top Fundamental UTHR UNITED THERAPEUTICS CORP DEL 0
Top Tech. & Fund. UTHR UNITED THERAPEUTICS CORP DEL 0
1This is the gain predicted by our Expected Gain model after the stock has broken out which uses the volume on breakout as a predictive term.
 New Features this Week Additional Value that we added this week

There were no new features added this week.

This Week's Top Tip Tips for getting the most out of our site

Understanding the CANTATA Evaluator

This week we will describe the components of our CANTATA Evaluator. To place the discussion in context, first look at the CE for our highest scoring stock, as of Thursday, April 7, 2005, Nicholas Financial.

Very early on in the development of the CANTATA Evaluator (CE) we recognized that there are two separate components to the method that are not evident from a simple reading of the CANTATA definitions. These are a technical component, meaning an analysis of the price/volume action of the stock over time, and a fundamental component, referring to the economic strength of the company and its management. We used this insight to break down CANTATA into measurable parts and present them on two separate (X-Y) axes in our ZONE methodology. This left-brain approach to CANTATA analysis makes sense to us, but its significance may not be obvious to those of you who are more holistically and intuitively inclined. So today we offer a cross-reference of CANTATA to our CE ratings.

Now we'll see how this translates to our CANTATA Evaluator.

CANTATA CANTATA Evaluator
C
Current Quarterly Earnings per Share
CEF 1
Quarter over Quarter Earnings Growth
CEF 2
Positive Quarterly Earnings
CEF 3
Quarterly Earnings Growth Acceleration
CEF 5
Quarter over Quarter Sales Growth Rates
CEF 6
Quarterly Sales Growth Rate Acceleration
CEF 7
Forward Earnings Growth Rates
A
Annual Earnings Increases
CEF 4
Year over Year Earnings Growth Rates
CEF 9
Return on Equity
CEF 10
Cash Flow
CEF 11
Net Margins
N
New Products, New Management, New Highs
CET 1
Price relative to 50 and 200 day moving averages; 50 day relative to 200 day moving average
CET 4
Price relative to 52 week high
Not Quantified
IPO Date, Significant Developments, News
S
Supply and Demand
CET 5
Up/Down Ratio
L
Leader or Laggard
CET 2
Relative Strength Rank
CET 3
Rank in Industry
I
Institutional Sponsorship
CEF 8
Institutional Ownership
M
Market Direction
Not Quantified
Market Direction is not specific to an individual stock so is not quantified as part of the CE. It is analyzed daily on our Market Analysis page

The result of our CE is a technical score (CET) out of 5 and a fundamental score (CEF) out of 11. The maximum possible combined score is 18.

How do you access the CE for an individual stock?

From the Evaluate > CANTATA Evaluator link you can analyze any stock in our database according to CANTATA principles. Also, Every stock on our watchlists or industry analysis list is linked to its current CE page. There is also a link to the CE on every chart and, as we showed in last week's newsletter, our Database Search can be used to find the top 100.

Additional CE Links on Breakoutwatch.com




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