Weekly Newsletter 07/16/05
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Market Summary Weekly Breakout Report Top Breakout Choices Top 2nd Chances New Features Tip of the Week
Prior editions of this newsletter with our valuable Tips of the Week are available here.
 Weekly Commentary  

Market Summary

Encouraging economic news and signs of controlled inflation allowed the markets to move higher this week. The DJI closed 1.83% higher but still remains 1.32% down for the year to date. The NASDAQ Composite gained a healthy 2.08% and is now down just 0.86% for the year while the S&P 500 gained 1.33% and set a new 4-year high.

The NASDAQ market is the one of most interest to growth stock investors and has provided a return of 14% since its low on 4/29 this year. The NASDAQ is tracking the upper level of its Bollinger Band and met resistance on Thursday at the 2160 level. The upper Bollinger Band is generally considered to be an overbought indictor, so we could see a small correction in the days to come. There also remains the hurdle of the 12 month high set on January 3 of 2191. These points are clear in the following 9 month NASDAQ chart, which also allows us to show off our new T/A chart with Bollinger Bands.

The S&P 500 is within its upper band, however, and so still has some room to move higher with no resistance ahead of it.

Breakouts This Week

MMSI (Merit Medical Systems) broke out of a long handle on Tuesday that was more like a flat base and gained 14.64% over its pivot before closing for a gain of 12.58%. Also on Tuesday, TOA (Technical Olympic) broke out of a cup-with-handle with a strong Handle Quality (HQ) metric and heavy buying the day before breakout, and continued to move ahead on 3 times average volume each day before closing the week with a gain of 11.26%. Overall, 8 of the 37 breakouts gained more than 5% for the week, and 3 made more than double digit intra-day gains.

Imminent Subscription Price Increase

Substantial value has been added to to breakoutwatch.com since our last price increase over a year ago and we are dedicated to continuous improvement. Another new feature - Technical Analysis Charts - was added this week. To finance our ongoing development we must raise our subscription prices which will rise by 10% on August 1, 2005. You can beat the price increase by subscribing now or renewing or upgrading your subscription before July 31.

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 New Features this Week Additional Value that we added this week

This week we introduced our Technical Analysis Charts feature which allows chart analysis by many more analytics and indicators than previously available on our site.

Access to our T/A Charts is our top tip of the week.

See This Week's Top Tip for more details.

This Week's Top Tip Tips for getting the most out of our site

Technical Analysis Charts

Our standard charts provide the information usually needed by followers of the CANTATA methodology, which is strongly based on an analysis of a stock's fundamentals and performance in relationship to the overall market, but are not powerful enough for those who like a more rigorous technical analysis approach. Consequently we are introducing a new charting option - Technical Analysis Charts. These charts are accessed from a new button on our standard charts:

Clicking the button will bring up a chart for the selected stock which can be heavily customized through a control panel to show new analytics and indicators.

T/A Chart Overview
Using the Control Panel

All chart options are controlled from the control panel on the left side. You must click the 'Update Chart' button to redraw the chart.

Main Chart

Note that data for the most recent date is shown in the row below the chart title. Moving the mouse over the price bars will cause the data for that day to be shown in that area.

 

 

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 Market Summary Overview of market direction and industry rotation
Index Value Change Week Change YTD Market1
Signal
Dow 10640.8 1.83% -1.32% enter
NASDAQ 2156.78 2.08% -0.86% enter
S&P 500 1227.92 1.33% 1.32% enter
 Best Performing Index
1 Week 13 Weeks 26 Weeks Year-to-Date
NASDAQ Composite
2.08 %
NASDAQ Composite
3.75 %
NASDAQ Composite
3.29 %
S&P 500
1.32 %
 Best Performing Industry (by average technical score over each period)
1 Week 3 Weeks 13 Weeks 26 Weeks
Oil & Gas-Cdn Integrated Oil & Gas-Cdn Integrated Healthcare-Hospitals Oil & Gas-Drilling
 Most Improved Industry (by change in technical rank2)
Electr-Laser Systems
+ 85
Electr-Laser Systems
+ 127
Electr-Laser Systems
+ 160
Electr-Laser Systems
+ 142
Charts of each industry rank and performance over 12 months are available on the site

1The Market Signal is derived from our proprietary market model. The market model is described on the site.
2The site also shows industry rankings based on fundamentals, combined technical and fundamentals, and on price alone (similar to IBD). The site also shows daily industry movements.
 Weekly Breakout Report How confirmed breakouts performed this week
# of Breakouts
Period Average1
Max. Gain During Period2
Gain at Period Close3
This Week 37 34.77 5.46% 1.79%
Last Week 40 32.92 7.15% 2.43%
13 Weeks 477 35.77 13.91%
7.93%
Sector
Industry
Breakout Count for Week
Electronics
Electr-Semicndtr Mfg
4
Computer Software
Comp Software-Enterprise
3
Electronics
Electr-Semicndtr Equip
3
Healthcare
Healthcare-Biomed/Genetic
3
Building
Building-Residentl/Comml
2
Healthcare
Healthcare-Products
2
Telecomm
Telecomm-Equipment
2
Banks
Banks-Foreign
1
Banks
Banks-Southeast
1
Computer
Computer-Networking
1
Computer
Computer-Peripheral Equip
1
Computer
Computer-Integrated Sys
1
Energy
Energy-Other Sources
1
Finance
Finance-Misc Services
1
Healthcare
Healthcare-Drugs/Ethical
1
Healthcare
Healthcare-Wholesale/Distrb
1
Healthcare
Healthcare-Instruments
1
Insurance
Insurance-Diversified
1
Internet
Internet-ISP/Content
1
Machinery
Machinery-Matl Hdlg/Autom
1
Pollution Control
Pollution Control-Services
1
Telecomm
Telecomm-Services US
1
Transportation
Transportation -Airlines
1
Transportation
Transportation-Equip Mfg
1
Transportation
Transportation-Truck
1
1The average number of breakouts in each week over the previous 13 weeks.
2This represents the return if each stock were bought at its breakout price and sold at its intraday high.
3This represents the return if each stock were bought at its breakout price and sold at the most recent close.
 Top Breakout Choices Stocks on our Cup-and-Handle list with best expected gain if they breakout
Category
Symbol
Company Name
Expected Gain1
Best Overall SIRI SIRIUS SATELLITE RADIO INC 121
Top Technical TRGL TOREADOR RES CORP 57
Top Fundamental SPN SUPERIOR ENERGY SVCS INC 58
Top Tech. & Fund. SPN SUPERIOR ENERGY SVCS INC 58
1This is the gain predicted by our Expected Gain model if the stock breaks out. Expected Gains for all cup-and-handle stocks are published on our site.
 Top Second Chances Stocks that broke out this week and are still in buyable range
Category
Symbol
Company Name
Expected Gain1
Best Overall CAMP CALIFORNIA AMPLIFIER INC 103
Top Technical USAK USA TRUCK INC 66
Top Fundamental OZRK BANK OF THE OZARKS INC 51
Top Tech. & Fund. CRM Salesforce.com Inc. 61
1This is the gain predicted by our Expected Gain model after the stock has broken out which uses the volume on breakout as a predictive term. Because the model variance is +/- 38% the expectation can be negative.

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