Weekly Newsletter 11/19/05
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Market Summary Weekly Breakout Report Top Breakout Choices Top 2nd Chances New Features Tip of the Week
Prior editions of this newsletter with our valuable Tips of the Week are available here.
 Weekly Commentary  

Market Summary

The rally that began on October 13 continued this week and allowed the three major indexes to set highs not seen in over four years. Both the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 closed the week at their highest level for the year while the DJI closed slightly down on it's day's high on Friday and just failed to break even for the year. Overall, the DJI gained 0.75% for the week while the NASDAQ added 1.12% and the S&P 500 rose 1.1%. The NASDAQ closed on Thursday at its uppermost resistance level of the year at 2220 and then broke through that level on Friday to set a new mark of 2234 on higher than average volume. Better than expected results from technology stocks accompanied by falling energy prices fueled the weeks gains and most sectors participated in the advance. Friday's action was particularly interesting as the markets trended higher and then slumped in mid session only to rally again in the afternoon. Normally one would expect trading to trail off late on Friday afternoon but a recovery, especially on the NASDAQ and S&P to near session highs, was particularly bullish.

In another bullish sign, the number of breakouts continued at a high level this week and their average gain for the week more than doubled that of the indexes. Sigma Designs (SIGM) broke out on Tuesday to close in-range at 1.5% over its pivot and then settled into a short handle before making a strong breakout on Friday to close 13.9% above Tuesday's breakout price. This is an excellent example of why we include stocks on our watchlist that have handles as short as two days instead of the recommended five day minimum. Another double-digit gainer was Sify Ltd (SIFY) with a gain of 14.1%.

Special Offers

Silver and Gold subscribers will be automatically upgraded to Platinum status until Monday, November 19, to allow them to evaluate our new metrics and the filter strategy detailed in last week's Top Tip. This week we introduce Breakoutwatch for Traders and Silver and Gold subscribers will have access to that until Monday also.

Guests will be given full Platinum privileges over Thanksgiving weekend from November 24 to 27. This is a great opportunity for newsletter subscribers who are not yet full subscribers to take advantage of our very rich tool set.

Thanksgiving Day

We wish all our newsletter subscribers a safe and happy Thanksgiving. There will be no newsletter next week as the team takes a break after all the recent enhancements.

Get a 14 day Trial of our premium 'Platinum' service for just $9.95 and if you subsequently subscribe to any subscription level we will credit your $9.95 to your subscription.

14 Day Platinum Trial
(you will need to allow pop-ups from breakoutwatch.com to see the subscription form)

 

 

 New Features this Week Additional Value that we added this week

Parabolic Sar

The Parabolic Sar indicator is now an option on the Technical Analysis Charts tool. The Parabolic SAR (for Stop and Reverse and the shape the indicator assumes) is considered useful for setting trailing stops on both the long and short side provided the stock is trending up or down. The Parabolic SAR can be added to a chart by selecting it in one of the four Technical Indicators boxes. Here's an example of the Parabolic Sar applied to a recent breakout.

'BOW' Button

A new button was added to the CwHwatch display which automatically sets the filters to those recommended in last weeks newsletter.

Breakoutwatch for Traders

We introduce a new service this week, 'Breakoutwatch for Traders'. This service is based on our work over the last few months to examine the filters that give the best returns and provides a simple one-click method to access stocks selected from our Cup-with-Handle watchlist that will give outstanding returns. There are three lists designed to meet three trading styles:

  • Stocks providing the best return over several weeks to months
  • Stocks that will give the best return over a 1 to 2 week period (Swing Traders)
  • Stocks that have the potential to give the best one day gains. (Day Traders)

This new service is discussed below.

This Week's Top Tip Tips for getting the most out of our site

Breakoutwatch for Traders

No matter what your trading style, breakoutwatch now offers a service that promises to give you outstanding returns without the necessity to understand any of our metrics or undertake extensive due diligence. The new service is accessed from the navigation bar by clicking the 'Breakoutwatch Trader' menu selection. This will take you to a page displaying three lists of stocks. The lists are derived from our research into stocks that have broken out from our cup-with-handle watchlist since April 2003. They are designed to give the best returns over several months, a few days or a single day. The criteria used are highly selective and there will not always be a candidate in each list category.

Stocks Providing Best Return after Breakout

This list is based on the filters we described last week augmented with the results of additional unpublished research. This research showed that there were some components of our CE (CANTATA Evaluator) that are not accessible through our watchlist filters that could be used to further improve the probability of breakout and longer term returns. The list also includes a recommended bid price based on the bidding strategy we also described next week. To get the best returns from this list a buy/stop order should be entered before the market opens so a fill price closest to the bid price is obtained. We also suggest using a limit of, say, 10c higher than the bid, so you do not get filled if the stock gaps up substantially over the breakout price. The historical results (accessible from the 'View History' button) are based on a buy/stop/limit order using these constraints.

Clicking the 'View History' button brings up a list of stocks that would have been bought from the list over the last 180 days and a summary of the possible returns that would have been obtained. The list is in reverse date order. Clicking the symbol shows a chart of the CwH pattern as it was when the stock would have been on the list and its subsequent performance. The filter values at that time can also be seen. The Gain/Loss is calculated on the assumption that the stock is sold at the highest close following opening the position.

Stocks Meeting Swing Trade Criteria

This list is compiled using filters optimized to give the best return over a five day period. Note that the bid price is usually below the breakout price so that the maximum return can be obtained. It therefore includes stocks that have a high probability of breaking out. Stocks bought using this strategy can be held, even if the breakout is not confirmed and the results given under the 'View History' list reflect that. The Gain/Loss is calculated on the assumption that the stock is sold at the highest close with 14 days following opening the position.

Stocks Meeting Day Trade Criteria

This list is compiled using filters optimized to give the best one day return. Note that the bid price is usually below the breakout price so that the maximum return can be obtained. It therefore includes stocks that have a high probability of breaking out. The results shown in the 'View History' assume that the position is closed at the stock's high of the day.

Access to the Breakoutwatch for Traders Service

Access is limited to Platinum subscribers until January 1, 2006. After then it will be available to all subscribers at a premium of $39.95 per month over their basic subscription.

Silver and Gold subscribers continue to be automatically upgraded to Platinum status until midnight EST on Monday, November 21 and can therefore access this service until then.

Guests will be given full Platinum privileges over Thanksgiving weekend from November 24 to 27. This is a great opportunity for newsletter subscribers who are not yet full subscribers to take advantage of our very rich tool set.

Investment Advisors Using our Service

If you are interested in basing part of your investment strategy on our service, but do not have the time, experience or confidence to do so on your own account, then consider using an investment advisor.

TradeRight Securities, located in a suburb of Chicago, is a full services investment management company and broker/dealer. They have been a subscriber, and user, of BreakoutWatch.com for some time now. They practice CANTATA and use Breakoutwatch.com as a “research analyst”.

They also provide:

• A hands-on approach through personalized service
• On-going communication, guidance, and consultation
• An environment that working together with their clients will help them reach their financial goals

You can learn more about TradeRight Securities at: www.traderightsecurities.com. If you’re interested in speaking to a representative, simply call them toll-free at 1-800-308-3938 or e-mail gdragel@traderightsecurities.com.

Get a 14 day Trial of our premium 'Platinum' service for just $9.95 and if you subsequently subscribe to any subscription level we will credit your $9.95 to your subscription.

14 Day Platinum Trial
(you will need to allow pop-ups from breakoutwatch.com to see the subscription form)


 Market Summary Overview of market direction and industry rotation
Index Value Change Week Change YTD Market1
Signal
Dow 10766.3 0.75% -0.15% enter
NASDAQ 2227.07 1.12% 2.37% enter
S&P 500 1248.27 1.1% 3% enter
 Best Performing Index
1 Week 13 Weeks 26 Weeks Year-to-Date
NASDAQ Composite
1.12 %
NASDAQ Composite
2.24 %
NASDAQ Composite
5.26 %
S&P 500
3 %
 Best Performing Industry (by average technical score over each period)
1 Week 3 Weeks 13 Weeks 26 Weeks
Machinery-Const/Mining Machinery-Const/Mining Oil & Gas-Cdn Integrated Oil & Gas-Cdn Integrated
 Most Improved Industry (by change in technical rank2)
Real Estate Development
+ 47
Electr-Scientific Instruments
+ 77
Electr-Scientific Instruments
+ 156
Mining-Gold/Silver/Gems
+ 147
Charts of each industry rank and performance over 12 months are available on the site

1The Market Signal is derived from our proprietary market model. The market model is described on the site.
2The site also shows industry rankings based on fundamentals, combined technical and fundamentals, and on price alone (similar to IBD). The site also shows daily industry movements.
 Weekly Breakout Report How confirmed breakouts performed this week
# of Breakouts
Period Average1
Max. Gain During Period2
Gain at Period Close3
This Week 40 26.54 4.35% 2.51%
Last Week 41 25.38 8.32% 5.23%
13 Weeks 418 28.08 10.87%
3.81%
Sector
Industry
Breakout Count for Week
Mining
Mining-Gold/Silver/Gems
4
Retail
Retail-Apparel
4
Banks
Banks-Foreign
2
Special
Special-ClsdEndFunds/Bond
2
Transportation
Transportation -Airlines
2
Aerospace & Defense
Aerospace & Defense-Electr
1
Auto & Truck
Auto & Truck-OEM
1
Business Services
Business Svcs-Staffing
1
Business Services
Business Svcs-Advertising
1
Computer
Computer-Makers
1
Computer
Computer-Integrated Sys
1
Computer Software
Comp Software-Enterprise
1
Diversified Operations
Diversified Operations
1
Electronics
Electr-Semicndtr Mfg
1
Finance
Finance-Brokers
1
Healthcare
Healthcare-Biomed/Genetic
1
Healthcare
Healthcare-Products
1
Healthcare
Healthcare-Outpnt/HmCare
1
Healthcare
Healthcare-Instruments
1
Insurance
Insurance-Diversified
1
Internet
Internet-Secur/Network Svcs
1
Internet
Internet-ISP/Content
1
Leisure
Leisure-Htls/Mtls
1
Mining
Mining-Misc Ores
1
None
None
1
Retail
Retail-Jewelry
1
Special
Special-Market/Tracking Funds
1
Telecomm
Telecomm-Services Fgn
1
Textile
Textile-Apparel Mfg
1
1The average number of breakouts in each week over the previous 13 weeks.
2This represents the return if each stock were bought at its breakout price and sold at its intraday high.
3This represents the return if each stock were bought at its breakout price and sold at the most recent close.
 Top Breakout Choices Stocks on our Cup-and-Handle list with best expected gain if they breakout
Category
Symbol
Company Name
Expected Gain1
Best Overall EMBT EMBARCADERO TECHNOLOGIES INC 94
Top Technical CPTV CAPTIVA SOFTWARE CORP DEL 48
Top Fundamental ODFL OLD DOMINION FGHT LINES INC 29
Top Tech. & Fund. ODFL OLD DOMINION FGHT LINES INC 29
1This is the gain predicted by our Expected Gain model if the stock breaks out. Expected Gains for all cup-and-handle stocks are published on our site.
 Top Second Chances Stocks that broke out this week and are still in buyable range
Category
Symbol
Company Name
Expected Gain1
Best Overall RADS RADIANT SYS INC 56
Top Technical CTHR CHARLES & COLVARD LTD 37
Top Fundamental ZUMZ Zumiez, Inc. 25
Top Tech. & Fund. ZUMZ Zumiez, Inc. 25
1This is the gain predicted by our Expected Gain model after the stock has broken out which uses the volume on breakout as a predictive term. Because the model variance is +/- 38% the expectation can be negative.

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