Weekly Newsletter 08/22/08
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Market Summary Weekly Breakout Report Top Breakout Choices Top 2nd Chances New Features Tip of the Week
Prior editions of this newsletter with our valuable Tips of the Week are available here.
 Weekly Commentary  
Market Summary

Although the major indexes slipped this week, they did so on lighter volume indicating consolidation rather than panic selling. The slippage was caused by a resurgence in oil prices as the recently improving dollar resumed its fall. The consequent rebound in energy stocks cushioned the losses in the large cap DJI and S&P 500 indexes while the smaller cap NASDAQ and Russell 2000 relinquished the leading role they have played for the last six weeks. Nevertheless, the Russell 2000 found support at its 200 dma level on Thursday while the NASDAQ, which is again below its 200 dma level found support at the 50 dma level.

The week's trend was reversed on Friday as oil fell by over $6 a barrel and the dollar recovered. Adding to the good news on Friday was rumor of a probable capital injection into Lehman Brothers by the Korean Development Bank. Oil prices are likely to continue to fall as the 'geopolitical risk premium' abates as the tensions subside in Georgia. Supplies are also improving due to the reopening of a pipeline throughTurkey and OPEC is expected to increase production by 1.4% next month.

If energy costs continue to fall, we will see a reduction in inflation and the US consumer will have more disposable income to support economic sectors outside of energy. This augers well for a continuance of the current upward trend.
 New Features this Week Additional Value that we added this week
New Personal Watchlist Planned for September Release

We are working on a completely revamped Personal Watchlist (PWL) and alert function. The new PWL will allow you to create up to four PWL's with up to 500 stocks by cutting and pasting from any list(s) that you may be maintaining from other sources such as newspapers, TV or other on-line resources.

Scheduled release date is the first weekend in September.

This Week's Top Tip Tips for getting the most out of our site


This tip is no longer available.
 Market Summary Overview of market direction and industry rotation
Index Value Change Week Change YTD Market1
Signal
Dow 11628.1 -0.27% -12.34% enter
NASDAQ 2414.71 -1.54% -8.96% enter
S&P 500 1292.19 -0.46% -12% enter
Russell 2000 737.6 -2.09% -3.71% N/A
 Best Performing Index
1 Week 13 Weeks 26 Weeks Year-to-Date
Dow Jones
-0.27 %		 Russell 2000
1.86 %		 Russell 2000
6.06 %		 Russell 2000
-3.71 %
 Best Performing Industry (by average technical score over each period)
1 Week 3 Weeks 13 Weeks 26 Weeks
Long Distance Carriers Long Distance Carriers REIT - Healthcare Facilities REIT - Healthcare Facilities
 Most Improved Industry (by change in technical rank2)
Aluminum
+ 54		 Aluminum
+ 99		 Long Distance Carriers
+ 213		 Long Distance Carriers
+ 210
Charts of each industry rank and performance over 12 months are available on the site

1The Market Signal is derived from our proprietary market model. The market model is described on the site.
2The site also shows industry rankings based on fundamentals, combined technical and fundamentals, and on price alone. The site also shows daily industry movements.
 Weekly Breakout Report How confirmed breakouts performed this week
# of Breakouts
Period Average1
Max. Gain During Period2
Gain at Period Close3
This Week 5 21.08 5.61% 5.1%
Last Week 24 21.92 5.22% -0.67%
13 Weeks 302 22.62 10.67%
 -0.54%
1The average number of breakouts in each week over the previous 13 weeks.
2This represents the return if each stock were bought at its breakout price and sold at its intraday high.
3This represents the return if each stock were bought at its breakout price and sold at the most recent close.
 Top Breakout Choices Stocks on our Cup-and-Handle list with best expected gain if they breakout
Category
Symbol
Company Name
Expected Gain1
Best Overall DAIO Data I/O Corp 105
Top Technical MCCC Mediacom Communication A 91
Top Fundamental BWLD Buffalo Wild Wings 44
Top Tech. & Fund. BWLD Buffalo Wild Wings 44
1This is the gain predicted by our Expected Gain model if the stock breaks out. Expected Gains for all cup-and-handle stocks are published on our site.
 Top Second Chances Stocks that broke out this week and are still in buyable range
Category
Symbol
Company Name
Expected Gain1
Best Overall HLF Herbalife 40
Top Technical HLF Herbalife 40
Top Fundamental HLF Herbalife 40
Top Tech. & Fund. HLF Herbalife 40
1This is the gain predicted by our Expected Gain model after the stock has broken out which uses the volume on breakout as a predictive term. Because the model variance is +/- 38% the expectation can be negative.
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