Weekly Newsletter 11/14/08
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Market Summary Weekly Breakout Report Top Breakout Choices Top 2nd Chances New Features Tip of the Week
Prior editions of this newsletter with our valuable Tips of the Week are available here.
 Weekly Commentary  
Market volatility remains high and despite a massive one-day gain on Thursday, the markets continued their downward trend with the Russell 2000 and NASDAQ Composite experiencing the biggest losses for the week as job losses mount, consumer spending contracts and credit remains tight.

The NASDAQ, like all the indexes we follow, set new lows for the year on Thursday before the intraday recovery. The trend, as analyzed by our market model, and as shown in the following chart, remains in a  downward channel with successive lower lows and lower highs.

NASDAQ Composite

While volatility may be beloved by traders it is a nightmare for the swing or medium term investor. For the swing trader, the most profitable place to make money over the last few weeks has been in short breakdowns rather than long breakouts. The following table shows the comparison over the last 13 weeks.:

Number of Sustained Breakouts
 171
Avg % gain to intra-day high
 13.48%
Number of Sustained Breakdowns
 181
Avg % Gain to intra-day low
 82.5%

 New Features this Week Additional Value that we added this week
No new features this week.
This Week's Top Tip Tips for getting the most out of our site

This tip is no longer available.
 Market Summary Overview of market direction and industry rotation
Index Value Change Week Change YTD Trend
Dow 8497.31 -4.99% -35.94% Down
NASDAQ 1516.85 -7.92% -42.81% Down
S&P 500 873.29 -6.2% -40.53% Down
Russell 2000 456.52 -9.74% -40.4% Down
Wilshire 5000 8721.88 -6.8% -41.3% Down
 Best Performing Index
1 Week 13 Weeks 26 Weeks Year-to-Date
Dow Jones
-4.99 %		 Dow Jones
-27.12 %		 Dow Jones
-34.57 %		 Dow Jones
-35.94 %
 Best Performing Industry (by average technical score over each period)
1 Week 3 Weeks 13 Weeks 26 Weeks
Home Health Care Home Health Care Long Distance Carriers REIT - Healthcare Facilities
 Most Improved Industry (by change in technical rank2)
Aluminum
+ 54		 Aluminum
+ 99		 Long Distance Carriers
+ 213		 Long Distance Carriers
+ 210
Charts of each industry rank and performance over 12 months are available on the site

1The Market Signal is derived from our proprietary market model. The market model is described on the site.
2The site also shows industry rankings based on fundamentals, combined technical and fundamentals, and on price alone. The site also shows daily industry movements.
 Weekly Breakout Report How confirmed breakouts performed this week
# of Breakouts
Period Average1
Max. Gain During Period2
Gain at Period Close3
This Week 9 13.54 4.67% -3.01%
Last Week 4 15.15 8.33% -8.03%
13 Weeks 190 15.85 12.8%
 -24.43%
1The average number of breakouts in each week over the previous 13 weeks.
2This represents the return if each stock were bought at its breakout price and sold at its intraday high.
3This represents the return if each stock were bought at its breakout price and sold at the most recent close.
 Top Breakout Choices Stocks on our Cup-and-Handle list with best expected gain if they breakout
Category
Symbol
Company Name
Expected Gain1
Best Overall FRBK Republic First Bncp Inc 86
Top Technical CYB WISDOMTREE DREYFUS 27
Top Fundamental GXDX GENOPTIX, INC. 41
Top Tech. & Fund. GXDX GENOPTIX, INC. 41
1This is the gain predicted by our Expected Gain model if the stock breaks out. Expected Gains for all cup-and-handle stocks are published on our site.
 Top Second Chances Stocks that broke out this week and are still in buyable range
Category
Symbol
Company Name
Expected Gain1
Best Overall INT World Fuel Service Corp 72
Top Technical ASEI American Science & Engineering Inc 46
Top Fundamental DLTR Dollar Tree Stores Inc 42
Top Tech. & Fund. DLTR Dollar Tree Stores Inc 42
1This is the gain predicted by our Expected Gain model after the stock has broken out which uses the volume on breakout as a predictive term. Because the model variance is +/- 38% the expectation can be negative.
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