Weekly Newsletter 02/06/09
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Market Summary Weekly Breakout Report Top Breakout Choices Top 2nd Chances New Features Tip of the Week
Prior editions of this newsletter with our valuable Tips of the Week are available here.
 Weekly Commentary  

The NASDAQ is the only major index to have made positive gains this week and is also the only index to be in positive territory for the year. Last week we showed how the index was in a descending triangle, which is considered a bearish formation and this week we see the index has reached the upper bound of the triangle. It has also reached the outer 2 standard deviation Bollinger Band. This implies that the preponderance of the evidence is that the index should should turn downfrom here but with the stimulus bill certain to get passed in some form next week, and an announcement of the revised TARP plan due from Treasury Secretary Geitner on Monday, a breakout to the upside seems more likely at the time of writing.

NASDAQ

Coincident with upturn on the NASDAQ we are seeing more breakouts and some impressive gains. The following table shows the breakouts for this week. Gains of over 10% are highlighted in yellow.

Breakout
Date
 Symbol
Chart
Pattern
BoP
Last
Close
Gain at
Close
Intraday
High
2/6/2009
SGR
HTF
29.97
30.25
0.93%
4.04%
2/6/2009
RMD
CwH
41.61
42.81
2.88%
4.52%
2/5/2009
HGG
HTF
9.18
10.55
14.92%
15.47%
2/5/2009
EXP
HSB
18.29
21.94
19.96%
20.83%
2/5/2009
CUB
CwH
29.57
29.56
−0.03%
9.81%
2/5/2009
AMV
CwH
9.51
9.49
−0.21%
0.32%
2/4/2009
SIAL
HSB
37.37
39.97
6.96%
7.47%
2/4/2009
FCX
HSB
25.6
29.81
16.45%
19.10%
2/4/2009
HMSY
CwH
32.5
34.29
5.51%
6.06%
2/4/2009
EW
CwH
58.5
61.1
4.44%
4.62%
2/4/2009
ALTH
CwH
8.23
8.15
−0.97%
13.00%
2/3/2009
GMCR
CwH
40.58
41.5
2.27%
5.69%
2/2/2009
ODSY
CwH
10.68
11.05
3.46%
4.68%
2/2/2009
LINC
CwH
15.4
16.35
6.17%
12.27%
2/2/2009
HAE
CwH
61.07
63.54
4.04%
6.99%
Average
5.79%
8.99%
 New Features this Week Additional Value that we added this week
No new features this week
This Week's Top Tip Tips for getting the most out of our site
No tip this week.
 Market Summary Overview of market direction and industry rotation
Index Value Change Week Change YTD Trend
Dow 8280.59 -3.7% -5.65% Down
NASDAQ 1591.71 1.28% 0.93% Down
S&P 500 868.6 -2.44% -3.84% Down
Russell 2000 470.7 -2.2% -5.76% Down
Wilshire 5000 8785.09 -2.23% -3.32% Down
 Best Performing Index
1 Week 13 Weeks 26 Weeks Year-to-Date
NASDAQ Composite
7.81 %		 NASDAQ Composite
-7.42 %		 Dow Jones
-29.43 %		 NASDAQ Composite
0.93 %
 Best Performing Industry (by average technical score over each period)
1 Week 3 Weeks 13 Weeks 26 Weeks
Diversified Utilities Long Distance Carriers Long Distance Carriers Long Distance Carriers
 Most Improved Industry (by change in technical rank2)
Aluminum
+ 54		 Aluminum
+ 99		 Long Distance Carriers
+ 213		 Long Distance Carriers
+ 210
Charts of each industry rank and performance over 12 months are available on the site

1The Market Signal is derived from our proprietary market model. The market model is described on the site.
2The site also shows industry rankings based on fundamentals, combined technical and fundamentals, and on price alone. The site also shows daily industry movements.
 Weekly Breakout Report How confirmed breakouts performed this week
# of Breakouts
Period Average1
Max. Gain During Period2
Gain at Period Close3
This Week 15 9.62 8.99% 5.79%
Last Week 10 8.92 14.8% 10%
13 Weeks 121 10 16.67%
 4.58%
1The average number of breakouts in each week over the previous 13 weeks.
2This represents the return if each stock were bought at its breakout price and sold at its intraday high.
3This represents the return if each stock were bought at its breakout price and sold at the most recent close.
 Top Breakout Choices Stocks on our Cup-and-Handle list with best expected gain if they breakout
Category
Symbol
Company Name
Expected Gain1
Best Overall LAB Labranche & Co Inc 126
Top Technical SMG Scotts Miracle-Gro Company 50
Top Fundamental WES WESTERN GAS PARTNERS 75
Top Tech. & Fund. WES WESTERN GAS PARTNERS 75
1This is the gain predicted by our Expected Gain model if the stock breaks out. Expected Gains for all cup-and-handle stocks are published on our site.
 Top Second Chances Stocks that broke out this week and are still in buyable range
Category
Symbol
Company Name
Expected Gain1
Best Overall ALTH Allos Therapeutics Inc. 104
Top Technical CUB Cubic Corp 69
Top Fundamental GMCR Green Mountain Coffee Roasters 60
Top Tech. & Fund. GMCR Green Mountain Coffee Roasters 60
1This is the gain predicted by our Expected Gain model after the stock has broken out which uses the volume on breakout as a predictive term. Because the model variance is +/- 38% the expectation can be negative.
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