Weekly Newsletter 09/25/09
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Market Summary Weekly Breakout Report Top Breakout Choices Top 2nd Chances New Features Tip of the Week
Prior editions of this newsletter with our valuable Tips of the Week are available here.
 Weekly Commentary  

The bloom is somewhat off the economic rose and markets are reacting to the reality that recovery from the deepest recession in 70 years will be a long and painful process.

It looks as though we have seen a top in the NASDAQ Composite (and the other indexes) for the time being. The chart shows that the medium term support trend line intersects with the former resistance, now support, level at around 2059. That is just 1.6% below Friday's close so we can expect a test of support at that level in the next couple of days.

NASDAQ Composite

If that level doesn't hold then the NASDAQ is likely to correct to its 50 dma level (2016) before receiving some support.

The number of breakouts dropped off sharply this week and we can expect that to continue as the consolidation continues. As we noted last week, the High Tight Flag pattern is continuing to produce some excellent performances with BC and ACLI making intraday gains of over 10%.,
 New Features this Week Additional Value that we added this week

Our Site Search engine has been broken for some time since Google modified their API and started charging a fee based on the number of pages indexed. I'm pleased to report that we have now implemented another search engine and over seven hundred pages on our site have now been indexed and are searchable.

The new search is available from the sidebar after logging in.
This Week's Top Tip Tips for getting the most out of our site
No tip this week.
 Market Summary Overview of market direction and industry rotation
Index Value Change Week Change YTD Trend
Dow 9665.19 -1.58% 10.13% Down
NASDAQ 2090.92 -1.97% 32.59% Up
S&P 500 1044.38 -2.24% 15.62% Up
Russell 2000 598.94 -3.07% 19.92% Up
Wilshire 5000 10771.6 -2.36% 18.54% Up
 Best Performing Index
1 Week 13 Weeks 26 Weeks Year-to-Date
Dow Jones
-1.58 %		 Russell 2000
16.7 %		 Russell 2000
39.61 %		 NASDAQ Composite
32.59 %
 Best Performing Industry (by average technical score over each period)
1 Week 3 Weeks 13 Weeks 26 Weeks
Medical Practitioners Medical Practitioners Auto Dealerships Auto Parts Stores
 Most Improved Industry (by change in technical rank2)
Aluminum
+ 54		 Aluminum
+ 99		 Long Distance Carriers
+ 213		 Long Distance Carriers
+ 210
Charts of each industry rank and performance over 12 months are available on the site

1The Market Signal is derived from our proprietary market model. The market model is described on the site.
2The site also shows industry rankings based on fundamentals, combined technical and fundamentals, and on price alone. The site also shows daily industry movements.
 Weekly Breakout Report How confirmed breakouts performed this week
# of Breakouts
Period Average1
Max. Gain During Period2
Gain at Period Close3
This Week 10 14.23 5.87% 0.22%
Last Week 29 13.69 12.11% -1.28%
13 Weeks 181 14.62 22.26%
 8.91%
1The average number of breakouts in each week over the previous 13 weeks.
2This represents the return if each stock were bought at its breakout price and sold at its intraday high.
3This represents the return if each stock were bought at its breakout price and sold at the most recent close.
 Top Breakout Choices Stocks on our Cup-and-Handle list with best expected gain if they breakout
Category
Symbol
Company Name
Expected Gain1
Best Overall NOG NORTHERN OIL AND GAS 115
Top Technical PRSC Providence Service Corp The 69
Top Fundamental GMCR Green Mountain Coffee Roasters 55
Top Tech. & Fund. GMCR Green Mountain Coffee Roasters 55
1This is the gain predicted by our Expected Gain model if the stock breaks out. Expected Gains for all cup-and-handle stocks are published on our site.
 Top Second Chances Stocks that broke out this week and are still in buyable range
Category
Symbol
Company Name
Expected Gain1
Best Overall OREX OREXIGEN THERAPEUTIC 80
Top Technical OREX OREXIGEN THERAPEUTIC 80
Top Fundamental OREX OREXIGEN THERAPEUTIC 80
Top Tech. & Fund. OREX OREXIGEN THERAPEUTIC 80
1This is the gain predicted by our Expected Gain model after the stock has broken out which uses the volume on breakout as a predictive term. Because the model variance is +/- 38% the expectation can be negative.
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