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summarizes the breakout events of the week and provides additional guidance
that does not fit into our daily format. It is published each weekend.
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Prior editions of this newsletter with our
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Weekly Commentary |
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No personal commentary this week as we ran out of time for the reason explained below. From the Big Picture we have: Positives: 1) European bond yields fall across the board and across the curve (except Italian 10 yr) 2) Euro basis swap, euribor/ois spread down a touch on the week 3) Euro zone mfr’g and services composite index unexpectedly rises to 47.9 from 47 4) German ZEW 6 mo expectations outlook up slightly 5) Philly and NY mfr’g survey’s surprise to upside and 6 month outlook improves (what are they seeing?) 6) Initial Claims fall to 366k, the least since May ’08 7) CPI rate of change about in line 8) MBA said refi’s rose to 5 week high 9) Big demand for Treasury auctions of 3′s, 10′s and 30′s 10) No QE3, for now at least. Money printing just a drug and hangover will come anyway at some point 11) China’s HSBC flash mfr’g # rises to 49 from 47.7 but still below 50 for 5th month in past 6
Negatives: 1) Implementation of EU summit agreement easier said than done 2) Euro zone CPI runs 3% y/o/y for 3rd straight month 3) US CPI up 3.4% y/o/y headline, 2.2% core, core rate at most since Oct ’08 4) US retail sales in Nov light vs estimates 5) MBA said purchase apps fall to 4 week low 6) Nov IP unexpectedly falls .1% led by auto’s and nat gas output 7) Shanghai index falls another 4% on week, FDI down 9.8% in Nov, 1st drop since July ’09 8) Indian Sensex drops to lowest since Nov ’09 as Oct IP falls 5.1% vs forecast of .7% fall 9) Japanese Q4 Tankan mfr’g # falls to -4 from +2 10) Solid demand for Treasury’s 3′s, 10′s and 30′s, what does that say about the economic outlook? 11) FOR STOCK MARKETS ONLY, no QE from Fed and ECB
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New Features this Week |
Additional Value that we added this week |
We were hoping to release a new feature that links alerts and the alert
monitor to intraday charts but were unable to complete it in time.
Should be available by next week.
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This Week's Top Tip |
Tips for getting the most out of our site |
No tip this week as ran out of time while working on the intraday charts.
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Market Summary |
Overview of market direction and industry rotation |
Index |
Value |
Change Week |
Change YTD |
Trend |
Dow |
11866.4 |
-2.61% |
2.5% |
Up |
NASDAQ |
2555.33 |
-3.46% |
-3.68% |
Up |
S&P 500 |
1219.66 |
-2.83% |
-3.02% |
Up |
Russell 2000 |
722.05 |
-3.13% |
-7.86% |
Down |
Best Performing Index |
1 Week |
13 Weeks |
26 Weeks |
Year-to-Date |
Wilshire 5000 0 % |
Dow Jones 3.1 % |
Dow Jones -1.15 % |
Dow Jones 2.5 % |
Best
Performing Industry (by average technical score over each period) |
1 Week |
3 Weeks |
13 Weeks |
26 Weeks |
Toy & Hobby Stores |
Toy & Hobby Stores |
Specialty Eateries |
Personal Computers |
Most
Improved Industry (by change in technical rank2) |
Consumer Services + 72 |
Publishing - Periodicals + 99 |
Surety & Title Insurance + 177 |
Surety & Title Insurance + 192 |
Charts of each industry rank
and performance over 12 months are available on the site |
1The Market Signal is derived from our proprietary
market model. The market model is described on the site.
2The site also shows industry rankings based on fundamentals,
combined technical and fundamentals, and on price alone.
The site also shows daily industry movements.
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Weekly Breakout Report |
How confirmed breakouts performed this
week |
# of Breakouts |
Period Average1 |
Max. Gain During Period2 |
Gain at Period Close3 |
This Week |
20 |
21.38 |
5.37% |
4.24% |
Last Week |
17 |
21.08 |
6.29% |
0.71% |
13 Weeks |
293 |
22 |
8.4% |
-0.77% |
1The average number of breakouts in each week over the previous
13 weeks.
2This represents the return if each stock
were bought at its breakout price and sold at its intraday high.
3This represents the
return if each stock were bought at its breakout price and sold at
the most recent close. |
Top Breakout Choices |
Stocks on our Cup-and-Handle list with best
expected gain if they breakout |
Category |
Symbol |
Company Name |
Expected Gain1 |
Best Overall |
TGE |
TGC Industries, Inc. |
100 |
Top Technical |
RPTP |
Raptor Pharmaceutical Corp. |
93 |
Top Fundamental |
MELI |
MercadoLibre, Inc. |
41 |
Top Tech. & Fund. |
MELI |
MercadoLibre, Inc. |
41 |
1This is the gain predicted by our Expected Gain model if the stock
breaks out. Expected Gains for all cup-and-handle stocks are published on our
site. |
Top Second Chances |
Stocks that broke out this week and
are still in buyable range |
Category |
Symbol |
Company Name |
Expected Gain1 |
Best Overall |
PDFS |
|
99 |
Top Technical |
WRLS |
Telular Corporation |
71 |
Top Fundamental |
INSP |
InfoSpace, Inc. |
69 |
Top Tech. & Fund. |
INSP |
InfoSpace, Inc. |
69 |
1This is the gain predicted by our Expected Gain model after the
stock has broken out which uses the volume on breakout as a predictive term.
Because the model variance is +/- 38% the expectation can be negative. |
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