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summarizes the breakout events of the week and provides additional guidance
that does not fit into our daily format. It is published each weekend.
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Prior editions of this newsletter with our
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Weekly Commentary |
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The NASDAQ Composite gapped up
Friday morning on the strong employment report numbers and broke
through resistance at 2879. The rally gained strength through the day
and closed up 1.6%. Volume was 30% above the 50 day average showing
that the rally had strong support. This week's price action was strong
and deserves several comments.
- Friday was the third accumulation day for the index this week indicating there is now strong buying interest.
- The nine month chart shows the index is now just outside the
2-standard deviation Bollinger Band. This does not mean that a
retrenchment is imminent, but it does mean that upward moves are
likely to be less dramatic than we saw in the last four days. A feature
of Bollinger Bands is that they widen or contract as price momentum
waxes and wanes, so the 2-sd band can track the price move further
upwards. It is price that moves the bands, rather than the bands
controlling the price!
- Average daily volume, which was weakening from last October through to the start of the year is now trending
up. You can see from the chart that since the start of the year,
volumes have been mostly higher than the 50 day average.
So the technicals are strong but there are some fundamentals that deserve noting also. From The Big Picture we have the following positives for the US economy:
- Jan Payroll gains show big upside surprise of 243k, about 100k more than expected, unemployment rate falls to 8.3%
- 2) ISM services index rises to best since Feb ’11
- 3) ISM mfr’g up 1 pt but touch less than expected
- 4) Jan vehicle sales at 14.1mm is best since clunker month in Aug ’09 and the most since May ’08 before that
- 5) US savings rate rises to 4% from 3.5%
The increasing volume gave us many strong breakouts this week. Twelve stocks gained more than 10% above their breakout price.
B'out Date |
Symbol |
Base |
Last Close |
Current %
off BOP |
Gain at
Intraday High |
1/30/2012 |
TNB |
CwH |
71.4 |
21.04% |
21.21% |
2/1/2012 |
PMFG |
CwH |
27.3 |
20.37% |
20.81% |
1/30/2012 |
UBNT |
CwH |
25 |
9.60% |
19.38% |
2/3/2012 |
CTCT |
CwH |
30.22 |
9.22% |
16.30% |
1/31/2012 |
SAVE |
CwH |
19.21 |
14.76% |
15.59% |
2/2/2012 |
CNQR |
CwH |
57.42 |
5.38% |
14.88% |
2/1/2012 |
MKSI |
CwH |
32.17 |
4.65% |
13.83% |
2/2/2012 |
GSVC |
CwH |
20.45 |
10.84% |
12.36% |
1/30/2012 |
NBIX |
CwH |
9.48 |
6.28% |
11.88% |
1/30/2012 |
ABD |
CwH |
11.01 |
8.79% |
10.28% |
2/1/2012 |
OLP |
CwH |
18.89 |
6.90% |
10.02% |
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New Features this Week |
Additional Value that we added this week |
No new features this week.
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This Week's Top Tip |
Tips for getting the most out of our site |
Writing computer algorithms to recognize chart patterns is fundamental to what we do at breakoutwatch. In fact, writing computer algorithms for stock analysis, transportation analysis and econometrics has been one of many joys of my life, so I am naturally very interested in how algorithms increasingly control how markets move. But algorithms don't just control the stock market, they increasingly control many aspects of our lives and getting an edge in their design and execution is becoming paramount, and expensive. You might find this talk at TED interesting, I did. How algorithms shape our world .
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Market Summary |
Overview of market direction and industry rotation |
Index |
Value |
Change Week |
Change YTD |
Trend |
Dow |
12862.2 |
1.59% |
5.28% |
Down |
NASDAQ |
2905.66 |
3.16% |
11.54% |
Up |
S&P 500 |
1344.9 |
2.17% |
6.94% |
Down |
Russell 2000 |
831.11 |
4.04% |
12.17% |
Down |
Best Performing Index |
1 Week |
13 Weeks |
26 Weeks |
Year-to-Date |
Russell 2000 4.04 % |
Russell 2000 11.34 % |
Russell 2000 16.3 % |
Russell 2000 12.17 % |
Best
Performing Industry (by average technical score over each period) |
1 Week |
3 Weeks |
13 Weeks |
26 Weeks |
Toy & Hobby Stores |
Toy & Hobby Stores |
Toy & Hobby Stores |
Specialty Eateries |
Most
Improved Industry (by change in technical rank2) |
Appliances + 59 |
Major Airlines + 77 |
Residential Construction + 185 |
Surety & Title Insurance + 206 |
Charts of each industry rank
and performance over 12 months are available on the site |
1The Market Signal is derived from our proprietary
market model. The market model is described on the site.
2The site also shows industry rankings based on fundamentals,
combined technical and fundamentals, and on price alone.
The site also shows daily industry movements.
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Weekly Breakout Report |
How confirmed breakouts performed this
week |
# of Breakouts |
Period Average1 |
Max. Gain During Period2 |
Gain at Period Close3 |
This Week |
79 |
24.38 |
6.12% |
4.37% |
Last Week |
34 |
20.69 |
6.72% |
4.69% |
13 Weeks |
331 |
26.54 |
11.45% |
8.08% |
1The average number of breakouts in each week over the previous
13 weeks.
2This represents the return if each stock
were bought at its breakout price and sold at its intraday high.
3This represents the
return if each stock were bought at its breakout price and sold at
the most recent close. |
Top Breakout Choices |
Stocks on our Cup-and-Handle list with best
expected gain if they breakout |
Category |
Symbol |
Company Name |
Expected Gain1 |
Best Overall |
NQ |
NetQin Mobile Inc (ADR) |
113 |
Top Technical |
DMAN |
DemandTec, Inc. |
40 |
Top Fundamental |
ECHO |
|
66 |
Top Tech. & Fund. |
ECHO |
|
66 |
1This is the gain predicted by our Expected Gain model if the stock
breaks out. Expected Gains for all cup-and-handle stocks are published on our
site. |
Top Second Chances |
Stocks that broke out this week and
are still in buyable range |
Category |
Symbol |
Company Name |
Expected Gain1 |
Best Overall |
CALD |
Callidus Software Inc. |
94 |
Top Technical |
WRLS |
Telular Corporation |
74 |
Top Fundamental |
TDG |
TransDigm Group Incorporated |
0 |
Top Tech. & Fund. |
TDG |
TransDigm Group Incorporated |
0 |
1This is the gain predicted by our Expected Gain model after the
stock has broken out which uses the volume on breakout as a predictive term.
Because the model variance is +/- 38% the expectation can be negative. |
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