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summarizes the breakout events of the week and provides additional guidance
that does not fit into our daily format. It is published each weekend.
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Weekly Commentary |
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It's President's Day weekend and so we are travelling to Oahu for a
soccer competition for our younger son. Therefore, no time for analysis
but we always find The Big Picture informative. here's their summary of the week's positives and negatives:
Positives: 1)
Greek bailout and PSI deal looking more likely AGAIN, at least that’s
what markets think as Greek stocks rally 3.4% on week, European credit
CDS narrower, European banks bounce and US stocks continue their march 2) German ZEW investor confidence figure rises to best since April 3)Initial Jobless Claims fall to lowest since Mar ’08 at 348k, well below estimates of 365k 4) Philly and NY mfr’g surveys gain but components mixed as headline #’s are not sum of parts 5) Multi family housing starts continue to grow 6) NAHB home builder index up 4 pts, 3 pts better than expected and highest since May ’07 7) India’s wholesale inflation rises at slowest pace since Nov ’09, leaves open room to cut rates 8) Japanese exporters see some breathing room with weaker yen to lowest since July after BoJ embarks on even more QE
Negatives: 1) Greek drama never ending, ECB wants special treatment 2) Euro zone GDP in Q4 contracts .3% q/o/q, although touch better than estimates of .4% 3) Portugal’s unemployment rate rises to 14% in Q4 from 12.4%, the highest since at least ’98 4) Singapore confirms Jan estimate of Q4 GDP contraction 5) Japanese economy shrinks more than expected in Q4, BoJ can’t help itself with more QE 6) Chinese FDI in Jan falls .3%, 3rd month in a row of declines 7) US Jan Retail Sales ex auto’s weaker than expected (but Dec revised up) 8) MBA said purchase apps fell 8.4% on the week to the slowest of the yr 9)
While CPI rate of change a touch below estimate m/o/m, core rate rises
to highest since Sept ’08 y/o/y. Overall index at another record high.
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New Features this Week |
Additional Value that we added this week |
No new features this wek.
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This Week's Top Tip |
Tips for getting the most out of our site |
This feature will return next week.
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Market Summary |
Overview of market direction and industry rotation |
Index |
Value |
Change Week |
Change YTD |
Trend |
Dow |
12949.9 |
1.16% |
5.99% |
Down |
NASDAQ |
2951.78 |
1.65% |
13.31% |
Up |
S&P 500 |
1361.23 |
1.38% |
8.24% |
Up |
Russell 2000 |
828.68 |
1.89% |
11.84% |
Down |
Best Performing Index |
1 Week |
13 Weeks |
26 Weeks |
Year-to-Date |
Russell 2000 1.89 % |
Russell 2000 15.19 % |
Russell 2000 27.16 % |
NASDAQ Composite 13.31 % |
Best
Performing Industry (by average technical score over each period) |
1 Week |
3 Weeks |
13 Weeks |
26 Weeks |
Personal Computers |
Personal Computers |
Toy & Hobby Stores |
Specialty Eateries |
Most
Improved Industry (by change in technical rank2) |
Medical Practitioners + 60 |
Computers Wholesale + 61 |
Major Airlines + 194 |
Residential Construction + 213 |
Charts of each industry rank
and performance over 12 months are available on the site |
1The Market Signal is derived from our proprietary
market model. The market model is described on the site.
2The site also shows industry rankings based on fundamentals,
combined technical and fundamentals, and on price alone.
The site also shows daily industry movements.
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Weekly Breakout Report |
How confirmed breakouts performed this
week |
# of Breakouts |
Period Average1 |
Max. Gain During Period2 |
Gain at Period Close3 |
This Week |
36 |
26.38 |
4.89% |
1.29% |
Last Week |
18 |
24.85 |
6.1% |
-1.25% |
13 Weeks |
353 |
27.62 |
12.06% |
6.56% |
1The average number of breakouts in each week over the previous
13 weeks.
2This represents the return if each stock
were bought at its breakout price and sold at its intraday high.
3This represents the
return if each stock were bought at its breakout price and sold at
the most recent close. |
Top Breakout Choices |
Stocks on our Cup-and-Handle list with best
expected gain if they breakout |
Category |
Symbol |
Company Name |
Expected Gain1 |
Best Overall |
PBTH |
PROLOR Biotech, Inc. |
122 |
Top Technical |
SOA |
Solutia Inc |
68 |
Top Fundamental |
GOLD |
Randgold Resources Ltd. (ADR) |
40 |
Top Tech. & Fund. |
GOLD |
Randgold Resources Ltd. (ADR)
|
40 |
1This is the gain predicted by our Expected Gain model if the stock
breaks out. Expected Gains for all cup-and-handle stocks are published on our
site. |
Top Second Chances |
Stocks that broke out this week and
are still in buyable range |
Category |
Symbol |
Company Name |
Expected Gain1 |
Best Overall |
PBTH |
|
113 |
Top Technical |
OMER |
Omeros Corporation |
104 |
Top Fundamental |
MELI |
MercadoLibre, Inc. |
53 |
Top Tech. & Fund. |
MELI |
MercadoLibre, Inc. |
53 |
1This is the gain predicted by our Expected Gain model after the
stock has broken out which uses the volume on breakout as a predictive term.
Because the model variance is +/- 38% the expectation can be negative. |
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