Weekly Newsletter 02/03/13 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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This newsletter summarizes the breakout events of the week
and provides additional guidance that does not fit into our
daily format. It is published each weekend.
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Prior editions of this newsletter with our valuable Tips of the Week are available here. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Weekly Commentary | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
For the benefit of new readers, we again mention that we focus on the NASDAQ Composite, rather than the S&P 500 or DJI, in our weekly commentary because the majority of breakouts come from stocks listed on that exchange. After three attempts, the NASDAQ Composite broke through resistance at 3170 on Friday. The index now faces stronger resistance at 3195, the highest point the index has previously reached since the 2007 collapse. As we said last week, we expect the index to now trade in a range between resistance at 3195 and support at 3170. Our reasoning is that the economy is starting to slow (GDP Declines Slightly in Fourth Quarter) and this slowdown is likely to continue in 2013 as further spending cuts take place and households pay slightly higher taxes due to the expiration of a temporary payroll tax cuts. Regular readers will know I am a fan of Nouriel Roubini who believes the world faces tough sledding in 2013. A counter argument is that the US housing market is recovering and the improvement in perceived household;d wealth could lead to the US Consumer, who represents 70% of GDP, once again putting purchases on their credit card. While this is already happening to some degree, the high unemployment rate, and insecurity for those that have jobs, will continue to hold back consumer spending. The number of breakouts fell back this week, and their average gain by Friday's close was also reduced, compared to last week. If the NASDAQ trades in the range I expect, then the number of breakouts and their profitability will continue to decline. This may not be the best way to encourage new subscriptions, but I believe my subscribers value objectivity over unrestrained optimism. On the other hand, a stalled or falling market will represent some promising shorting opportunities for followers of our potential breakdown watchlists. Special Offer
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New Features this Week | Additional Value that we added this week | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
We have added some features to our EPS Trend tool.
We are working to link the current EPS
estimate to our watchlists and email alerts.
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This Week's Top Tip | Tips for getting the most out of our site | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Last week, we promised the results of
an extensive simulation of our backtest tool to
determine the criteria for breakout selection that was
most appropriate for the current market. During that
exercise we discovered a way to make the backtest more
representative of real trading conditions. Programming
and testing of that change unfortunately could not be
completed in time for the newsletter, delayed though
it is, and so we hope to bring you the results of that
simulation next week.
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Market Summary | Overview of market direction and industry rotation | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Weekly Breakout Report | How confirmed breakouts performed this week | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2This represents the return if each stock were bought at its breakout price and sold at its intraday high. 3This represents the return if each stock were bought at its breakout price and sold at the most recent close. |
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Top Breakout Choices | Stocks on our Cup-and-Handle list with best expected gain if they breakout | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Top Second Chances | Stocks that broke out this week and are still in buyable range | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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