Weekly Newsletter 04/18/14
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Market Summary Weekly Breakout Report Top Breakout Choices Top 2nd Chances New Features Tip of the Week
Prior editions of this newsletter with our valuable Tips of the Week are available here.
 Weekly Commentary  

The NASDAQ Composite received support as it touched its 200 day moving average on Tuesday and has made a tentative recovery since  then. However, volumes were well below average, possibly because of the short week, so this  not yet a strong rally.

Our market signals remain down so caution is still advised.

NASDAQ Comp.
 Weekly Breakout Report  

The number of breakouts fell again this week - unsurprising considering the market weakness and low volumes overall. Notice that all but one of the breakouts was in a squeeze.

Breakouts for Week Beginning 04/14/14
Brkout Date Symbol Base Squeeze BrkoutOut Price Brkout Day Close Last Close Current % off BOP Gain at Intraday High
04/17/14 TPLM HSB Y 9.16 9.83 9.83 7.31 7.31
04/16/14 MG SQZ Y 23.37 24 24.03 2.82 2.82
04/16/14 HFC SQZ Y 49.67 50.31 50.8 2.28 2.28
04/17/14 PPG DB N 197.76 199.46 199.46 0.86 0.86
04/16/14 NI SQZ Y 35.99 36.3 35.92 -0.19 0.86
04/17/14 ALSN DB Y 30.79 30.99 30.99 0.65 0.65
04/16/14 CNS SQZ Y 41.65 41.88 39.79 -4.47 0.55
04/15/14 AEE SQZ Y 41.67 41.75 40.99 -1.63 0.55
04/16/14 ARE SQZ Y 73.78 73.98 73.28 -0.68 0.27
Weekly Average (9 breakouts) 0.77 1.79
 New Features this Week Additional Value that we added this week

No new features this week.
 
This Week's Top Tip Tips for getting the most out of our site

Recognizing a Head & Shoulders Bottom

This weeks top breakout (TPLM) came from a head and shoulders bottom (HSB)  pattern. This pattern is the exact inverse of the head and shoulders top but can be hard to recognize because of its inverted state. To make the pattern clear, I've annotated the chart for TPLM to show the left and right shoulders, the head and the neckline. The pattern is considered bullish, just as its inverted cousin, the head and shoulders top, is considered bearish.

A breakout from a  HSB occurs when the price rises above a line drawn between the two highs separating the shoulders from the head. This line is called the neckline.

TPLM HSB
 Market Summary Overview of market direction and industry rotation
Index Value Change Week Change YTD Trend
Dow 16408.5 2.38% -1.01% Down
NASDAQ 4095.52 2.39% -1.94% Down
S&P 500 1864.85 2.71% 0.89% Down
 Best Performing Index
1 Week 13 Weeks 26 Weeks Year-to-Date
S&P 500
1.73 %		 S&P 500
1.03 %		 S&P 500
7.6 %		 S&P 500
0.89 %
 Best Performing Industry (by average technical score over each period)
1 Week 3 Weeks 13 Weeks 26 Weeks
Toy & Hobby Stores Toy & Hobby Stores Manufactured Housing Toy & Hobby Stores
 Most Improved Industry (by change in technical rank2)
REIT - Industrial
+ 54		 Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
+ 68		 Auto Parts Stores
+ 193		 Aluminum
+ 207
Charts of each industry rank and performance over 12 months are available on the site

1The Market Signal is derived from our proprietary market model. The market model is described on the site.
2The site also shows industry rankings based on fundamentals, combined technical and fundamentals, and on price alone. The site also shows daily industry movements.
 Top Breakout Choices Stocks on our Cup-and-Handle list with best expected gain if they breakout
Category
Symbol
Company Name
Expected Gain1
Best Overall PAM Pampa Energia S.A. 105
Top Technical PAM Pampa Energia S.A. 105
Top Fundamental PII Polaris Industries Inc. 33
Top Tech. & Fund. BMA Macro Bank Inc. 61
1This is the gain predicted by our Expected Gain model if the stock breaks out. Expected Gains for all cup-and-handle stocks are published on our site.
 Top Second Chances Stocks that broke out this week and are still in buyable range
Category
Symbol
Company Name
Expected Gain1
Best Overall No selection this week

Top Technical No selection this week

Top Fundamental No selection this week

Top Tech. & Fund. No selection this week

1This is the gain predicted by our Expected Gain model after the stock has broken out which uses the volume on breakout as a predictive term. Because the model variance is +/- 38% the expectation can be negative.
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