BreakoutWatch.com Weekly Review for 02/28/2015

You are receiving this email because you are or were a BreakoutWatch.com subscriber, or have subscribed to our weekly newsletter. This newsletter summarizes the breakout events of the week and provides additional guidance that does not fit into our daily format. It is published each weekend.

Market Summary

Weekly Breakout Report

Top Breakout Choices

Top 2nd Chances

New Features

Tip of the Week

Prior editions of this newsletter with our valuable Tips of the Week are available here.

Weekly Commentary

The NASDAQ Composite failed to top its 2000 high but did have its highest monthly close ever on Friday. Volume improved but there were two distribution days on Wednesday and again on Friday as economic growth for the fourth quarter of 2014 was revised down from 2.6% to 2.2%. I expect the index will move sideways into next week.
NASDAQ Composite

Weekly Breakout Report

As volume picked up, the number of breakouts did also jumping to 22 compared to last week's 11.

Brkout Date	Symbol	Base	Squeeze	BrkoutOut Price	Brkout Day Close	RS Rank^*	Last Close	Current % off BOP	Gain at Intraday High
Breakouts for Week Beginning 02/23/15
02/23/15	ZIOP	HTF	N	9.99	10.06	99.00	11.26	12.71	17.92
02/23/15	TREX	CwH	N	45.19	46.48	88.00	50.35	11.42	13.79
02/24/15	LNG	CwH	N	76.09	76.21	86.00	80.63	5.97	5.97
02/23/15	CRF	HTF	N	21.80	21.98	99.00	22.91	5.09	5.6
02/23/15	XPO	CwH	N	42.54	44.15	95.00	44.15	3.78	5.24
02/24/15	HSII	CwH	N	23.79	24.61	90.00	23.94	0.63	3.45
02/25/15	OSIR	CwH	N	16.90	17.48	84.00	17.27	2.19	3.43
02/27/15	AMKR	CwH	N	9.42	9.73	89.00	9.73	3.29	3.29
02/23/15	SGU	CwH	N	7.49	7.70	86.00	7.61	1.60	3.2
02/25/15	HTLF	CwH	N	30.00	30.60	85.00	30.71	2.37	2.97
02/24/15	ASML	DB	N	107.60	110.75	76.00	107.68	0.07	2.93
02/26/15	OLED	CwH	N	35.94	36.76	88.00	34.39	-4.31	2.28
02/27/15	FBP	CwH	N	6.47	6.59	90.00	6.59	1.85	1.85
02/25/15	GRUB	CwH	N	41.75	42.46	87.00	42.01	0.62	1.7
02/25/15	SPIL	CwH	N	8.96	9.06	90.00	8.85	-1.23	1.45
02/27/15	ATRO	CwH	N	68.63	69.56	88.00	69.56	1.36	1.36
02/25/15	MELI	CwH	N	132.61	134.22	86.00	130.97	-1.24	1.21
02/25/15	HRL	CwH	N	57.92	58.53	83.00	58.51	1.02	1.05
02/26/15	SPLK	CwH	N	68.94	69.57	83.00	67.25	-2.45	0.91
02/26/15	NXST	CwH	N	54.69	55.02	83.00	54.53	-0.29	0.6
Weekly Average (20 breakouts)								2.22	4.01
^*RS Rank on day before breakout.

New Features this Week

Additional Value that we added this week

New Parameter and Filter for Watchlists

Following a request from a subscriber, I've added a new column and filter to the long position watchlists.

The new column shows the Last Close (i.e.the close on the day the watchlist was published) as percent of the breakout price (BoP). This tells you how close the last close is to the breakout price.

This Week's Top Tip

Tips for getting the most out of our site

How to Find Cup and Handle breakouts with a 90% Chance of Success

How should we use this new filter?

I analyzed all successful cup and handle pattern breakouts since 2009 and counted the number of successful breakouts for the last close price as a percent of the breakout price. Lets call that LC%. Here's what I found:

This chart shows the % of breakouts for each increment of LC%. For example 22.2% of breakouts occurred when LC% was 99% or above, 27.1% occurred between 98% and 99% and so on.

Looking at the cumulative percentages, 90% of breakouts occurred when LC% was at or above 94.8%, and 50% of breakouts occurred when LC% was 98% or above.

Conclusion

The new filter can be used to eliminate watchlist stocks with a low probability of breakout and also to eliminate alerts on stocks with a low probability of breakout. Setting the filter to >= 95 will provide stocks with a better than 90% probability of successful breakout.

Market Summary

Overview of market direction and industry rotation

Index

Value

Change Week

Change YTD

Trend

Dow

18132.7

-0.04%

1.74%

NASDAQ

4963.53

0.15%

4.8%

S&P 500

2104.5

-0.27%

2.21%

1 Week	13 Weeks	26 Weeks	Year-to-Date
Best Performing Index
NASDAQ Composite 0.15 %	NASDAQ Composite 3.59 %	NASDAQ Composite 8.37 %	NASDAQ Composite 4.8 %
Best Performing Industry (by average technical score over each period)
1 Week	3 Weeks	13 Weeks	26 Weeks
Toy & Hobby Stores	Toy & Hobby Stores	Toy & Hobby Stores	Toy & Hobby Stores
Most Improved Industry (by change in technical rank²)
Recreational Goods - Other + 44	Music & Video Stores + 89	Music & Video Stores + 158	Music & Video Stores + 178
Charts of each industry rank and performance over 12 months are available on the site

¹The Market Signal is derived from our proprietary market model. The market model is described on the site.
²The site also shows industry rankings based on fundamentals, combined technical and fundamentals, and on price alone. The site also shows daily industry movements.

Top Breakout Choices

Stocks on our Cup-and-Handle list with best expected gain if they breakout