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because you are or were a BreakoutWatch.com subscriber, or have
subscribed to our weekly newsletter. This newsletter summarizes the
breakout events of the week and provides additional guidance that
does not fit into our daily format. It is published each weekend.
|
Prior editions of this newsletter with our valuable
Tips of the Week are available here. |
Weekly Commentary |
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The NASDAQ Composite set a new high on Wednesday but traders were
uncertain that the high would hold resulting in a "Doji"
candlestick pattern(see chart below). The "Doji" pattern indicates
uncertainty about the future direction as the pattern shows an
almost equal open and close but with trading above and below
during the session. Thursday resolved the uncertainty to the
downside as Greece postponed a debt payment to the IMF but a
strong jobs report on Friday allowed the index to close for a
small 0.2% gain. Overall, the index closed the week for a very
small 0.03% loss. While our trend indicators for the NASDAQ and
S&P 500 remain positive, the signs of an improving economy are
sure to rekindle worries that the Fed will soon begin to raise
interest rates with a negative effect on market sentiment.
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Weekly
Breakout Report |
|
Volatility Squeeze breakouts continued to dominate the week's
breakouts with 38 out of 68 breakouts and an average gain of 3.8%.
AXDX provides an interesting case study and we look at in detail in
our Top Tip below.
Breakouts for
Week Beginning 06/01/15 |
Brkout Date |
Symbol |
Base |
Squeeze |
BrkoutOut Price |
Brkout Day Close |
RS Rank* |
Last Close |
Current % off BOP |
Gain at Intraday High |
06/04/15 |
WBAI* |
HTF |
N |
22.62 |
23.00 |
89 |
26.06 |
15.21 |
15.21 |
06/04/15 |
VISN* |
SQZ |
Y |
15.65 |
17.75 |
84 |
17.38 |
11.05 |
13.42 |
06/04/15 |
AXDX* |
SQZ |
Y |
24.37 |
25.91 |
87 |
27.29 |
11.98 |
11.98 |
06/01/15 |
NWBO* |
SQZ |
Y |
8.43 |
8.56 |
92 |
9.43 |
11.86 |
11.86 |
06/01/15 |
UEPS* |
CwH |
N |
14.84 |
15.91 |
82 |
16.07 |
8.29 |
10.51 |
06/02/15 |
NDRM |
CwH |
N |
14.40 |
15.08 |
90 |
15.74 |
9.31 |
9.31 |
06/02/15 |
IBP |
SQZ |
Y |
21.32 |
22.57 |
92 |
23.23 |
8.96 |
8.96 |
06/02/15 |
GWPH |
SQZ |
Y |
115.76 |
120.3 |
96 |
125.98 |
8.83 |
8.83 |
06/03/15 |
PGTI |
CwH |
N |
12.48 |
13.07 |
85 |
13.53 |
8.41 |
8.41 |
06/01/15 |
TNK |
CwH |
N |
7.28 |
7.63 |
95 |
7.52 |
3.30 |
7.42 |
06/03/15 |
GLOB |
CwH |
N |
26.66 |
27.82 |
97 |
28.31 |
6.19 |
6.19 |
06/01/15 |
IPXL |
SQZ |
Y |
47.06 |
48.9 |
95 |
48.59 |
3.25 |
6.06 |
06/03/15 |
AMWD |
SQZ |
Y |
53.86 |
56.07 |
91 |
57.11 |
6.03 |
6.03 |
06/02/15 |
LXFT |
SQZ |
Y |
53.99 |
54.47 |
91 |
57.06 |
5.69 |
5.69 |
06/03/15 |
LXFT |
SQZ |
Y |
54.48 |
55 |
93 |
57.06 |
4.74 |
4.74 |
06/03/15 |
AAC |
CwH |
N |
39.98 |
41.48 |
91 |
41.87 |
4.73 |
4.73 |
06/03/15 |
LAD |
SQZ |
Y |
108.26 |
110.27 |
90 |
113.17 |
4.54 |
4.54 |
06/02/15 |
SHOO |
SQZ |
Y |
38.59 |
38.6 |
80 |
40.29 |
4.41 |
4.41 |
06/03/15 |
MXL |
CwH |
N |
10.32 |
10.76 |
86 |
10.7 |
3.68 |
4.26 |
06/01/15 |
MYRG |
SQZ |
Y |
29.65 |
29.65 |
81 |
30.48 |
2.80 |
4.22 |
06/05/15 |
SPCB |
CwH |
N |
13.28 |
13.84 |
92 |
13.84 |
4.22 |
4.22 |
06/03/15 |
AFOP |
CwH |
N |
19.76 |
20.58 |
84 |
20.19 |
2.18 |
4.15 |
06/02/15 |
WIBC |
CwH |
N |
11.20 |
11.25 |
81 |
11.66 |
4.11 |
4.11 |
06/01/15 |
TWOU |
SQZ |
Y |
27.83 |
28.23 |
96 |
28.97 |
4.10 |
4.1 |
06/04/15 |
INSY |
SQZ |
Y |
61.80 |
63.56 |
96 |
64.29 |
4.03 |
4.03 |
06/05/15 |
REGN |
CwH |
N |
519.46 |
539.40 |
93 |
539.4 |
3.84 |
3.84 |
06/04/15 |
LXFT |
SQZ |
Y |
55.01 |
55.36 |
93 |
57.06 |
3.73 |
3.73 |
06/03/15 |
XNCR |
CwH |
N |
18.34 |
18.96 |
95 |
19.01 |
3.65 |
3.65 |
06/03/15 |
CVGW |
CwH |
Y |
54.69 |
56.54 |
92 |
55.92 |
2.25 |
3.62 |
06/04/15 |
LAKE |
CwH |
N |
11.00 |
11.37 |
83 |
11 |
0.00 |
3.36 |
06/03/15 |
CALD |
SQZ |
Y |
14.52 |
15 |
82 |
14.86 |
2.34 |
3.31 |
06/01/15 |
MIK |
SQZ |
Y |
27.36 |
27.52 |
84 |
26.98 |
-1.39 |
3.25 |
06/03/15 |
IBP |
SQZ |
Y |
22.54 |
22.74 |
94 |
23.23 |
3.06 |
3.06 |
06/04/15 |
EXPR |
CwH |
N |
18.10 |
18.49 |
89 |
18.65 |
3.04 |
3.04 |
06/01/15 |
NSTG |
CwH |
N |
14.38 |
14.62 |
82 |
14.8 |
2.92 |
2.92 |
06/03/15 |
SPWH |
CwH |
N |
10.11 |
10.15 |
92 |
10.4 |
2.87 |
2.87 |
06/05/15 |
INSM |
SQZ |
Y |
23.42 |
24.08 |
95 |
24.08 |
2.82 |
2.82 |
06/04/15 |
AEO |
SQZ |
Y |
16.48 |
16.91 |
86 |
16.57 |
0.55 |
2.61 |
06/04/15 |
TXRH |
SQZ |
Y |
35.67 |
35.72 |
81 |
36.57 |
2.52 |
2.52 |
06/02/15 |
MMSI |
SQZ |
Y |
20.77 |
21 |
88 |
20.9 |
0.63 |
2.36 |
06/03/15 |
VDSI |
CwH |
N |
27.85 |
28.46 |
95 |
28.5 |
2.33 |
2.33 |
06/01/15 |
GSIG |
CwH |
N |
14.96 |
15.12 |
83 |
15.1 |
0.94 |
2.27 |
06/02/15 |
ANW |
SQZ |
Y |
14.77 |
15 |
88 |
15.06 |
1.96 |
2.1 |
06/02/15 |
CORT |
SQZ |
Y |
6.19 |
6.28 |
98 |
6.32 |
2.10 |
2.1 |
06/03/15 |
HVB |
SQZ |
Y |
26.02 |
26.36 |
83 |
26.56 |
2.08 |
2.08 |
06/02/15 |
OPY |
CwH |
N |
26.24 |
26.50 |
85 |
26.76 |
1.98 |
1.98 |
06/04/15 |
CIEN |
CwH |
N |
24.55 |
24.64 |
89 |
25 |
1.83 |
1.83 |
06/03/15 |
CUDA |
SQZ |
Y |
40.11 |
40.77 |
88 |
40.82 |
1.77 |
1.77 |
06/01/15 |
DOOR |
SQZ |
Y |
68.10 |
69.3 |
84 |
68.8 |
1.03 |
1.76 |
06/03/15 |
DLTR |
SQZ |
Y |
77.72 |
79.08 |
83 |
77.64 |
-0.10 |
1.75 |
06/01/15 |
COO |
SQZ |
Y |
181.72 |
182.97 |
83 |
175.37 |
-3.49 |
1.72 |
06/04/15 |
CAVM |
CwH |
N |
72.65 |
73.42 |
85 |
73.88 |
1.69 |
1.69 |
06/01/15 |
PFSI |
CwH |
Y |
18.99 |
19.00 |
80 |
19.3 |
1.63 |
1.63 |
06/02/15 |
ULTA |
SQZ |
Y |
153.83 |
154.35 |
91 |
156.28 |
1.59 |
1.59 |
06/02/15 |
PFSI |
SQZ |
Y |
19.02 |
19.15 |
80 |
19.3 |
1.47 |
1.47 |
06/03/15 |
ULTA |
SQZ |
Y |
154.26 |
156.26 |
93 |
156.28 |
1.31 |
1.31 |
06/02/15 |
BSET |
SQZ |
Y |
28.99 |
29.35 |
95 |
27.44 |
-5.35 |
1.24 |
06/05/15 |
JKS |
CwH |
Y |
30.38 |
30.72 |
85 |
30.72 |
1.12 |
1.12 |
06/01/15 |
ATRC |
SQZ |
Y |
23.00 |
23.24 |
93 |
22.51 |
-2.13 |
1.04 |
06/05/15 |
CORI |
HTF |
N |
14.36 |
14.50 |
98 |
14.5 |
0.97 |
0.97 |
06/01/15 |
FICO |
SQZ |
Y |
87.95 |
88.17 |
90 |
87.75 |
-0.23 |
0.9 |
06/04/15 |
RDI |
SQZ |
Y |
13.94 |
14.06 |
91 |
13.99 |
0.36 |
0.86 |
06/02/15 |
ORLY |
SQZ |
Y |
222.38 |
222.9 |
87 |
222.09 |
-0.13 |
0.83 |
06/05/15 |
BANC |
HTF |
N |
13.60 |
13.71 |
86 |
13.71 |
0.81 |
0.81 |
06/03/15 |
SUSQ |
CwH |
N |
14.00 |
14.02 |
83 |
14.09 |
0.64 |
0.64 |
06/02/15 |
COR |
SQZ |
Y |
47.42 |
47.52 |
85 |
46.54 |
-1.86 |
0.21 |
06/03/15 |
GOGO |
CwH |
N |
22.50 |
22.50 |
86 |
22.22 |
-1.24 |
0 |
06/04/15 |
TEO |
HSB |
N |
20.38 |
20.38 |
27 |
19.93 |
-2.21 |
-0 |
Weekly Average (68 breakouts) |
3.02 |
3.86 |
*RS Rank on day before breakout. |
* Volume on watchlist date >= 50 day average volume and
gain >= 10%. |
New
Features this Week |
Additional Value that we added this week |
New
Volume Filter on Long Watchlists.
We have commented before (most recently 5/815)
that a surge in volume accompanied by improving price before
breakout can indicate a strong breakout to come). AXDX (see below)
provides another example of this. To permit the easy recognition
of above average volume, I've modified our watchlist filters to
allow the selection of stocks with an above average volume on the
date of their listing on the watchlist. Simply set the new
filter to 'yes' and the watchlist (and alerts if you so specify)
will be limited to those that have an equal or above average
volume and improving price on the date the watchlist is published.
|
This Week's Top
Tip |
Tips for getting the most out of our site |
At
Least Average Volume on Watchlist Date Forecasts Strong Breakout
AXDX was list on our cup and handle pattern watchlist on 06/02/03
with a volume 1.6 times the 50 day average. The stock was also
marked as being in a volatility squeeze. We issued an alert the
next day, 06/03/15 at 10:27 and a price of 24.08. Although
the stock closed above its pivot price we did not recognize it as
a successful breakout because the volume failed to meet the
1.5 times ADV requirement.
However, the stock did not
rise to the point where the volatility squeeze came off, and
so it remained on our Volatility Squeeze (SQZ) watchlist on
06/03/15 for trading the next day.. We issued a SQZ alert on
06/04/15 at 09:53 and a price of 24.40.This time the volume
rose to almost 3 times ADV and the breakout was
confirmed.
If our new volume filter had
been available for these dates, then AXDX would have been
selected.
All of the stocks that gained at least 10% this week had
a volume on the day before breakout at least equal
to their average volume.
|
Market Summary |
Overview of market direction and industry
rotation |
Index |
Value |
Change Week |
Change YTD |
Trend |
Dow |
17849.5 |
-0.9% |
0.15% |
Down |
NASDAQ |
5068.46 |
-0.03% |
7.02% |
Up |
S&P 500 |
2092.83 |
-0.69% |
1.65% |
Up |
Best Performing Index
|
1 Week |
13 Weeks |
26 Weeks |
Year-to-Date |
NASDAQ Composite
-0.03 % |
NASDAQ Composite
2.86 % |
NASDAQ Composite
6.02 % |
NASDAQ Composite
7.02 % |
Best Performing Industry (by
average technical score over each period)
|
1 Week |
3 Weeks |
13 Weeks |
26 Weeks |
Drug Stores |
Drug Stores |
Drugs Wholesale |
Toy & Hobby Stores |
Most Improved Industry (by
change in technical rank2)
|
Tobacco Products - Other
+ 102 |
Tobacco Products - Other
+ 119 |
Gaming Activities
+ 174 |
Office Supplies
+ 167 |
Charts of each
industry rank and performance over 12 months are
available on the site |
1The Market Signal is derived
from our proprietary market model. The market model is
described on the site.
2The site also shows industry rankings based on
fundamentals, combined technical and fundamentals, and on
price alone. The site also shows daily industry movements.
|
|
Top
Breakout Choices |
Stocks on our Cup-and-Handle
list with best expected gain if they breakout |
Category
|
Symbol
|
Company Name
|
Expected Gain1
|
Best Overall |
PMFG |
PMFG, Inc. |
111 |
Top Technical |
PMFG |
PMFG, Inc. |
111 |
Top Fundamental |
MDXG |
MiMedx Group, Inc |
84 |
Top Tech. & Fund. |
HQY |
HealthEquity, Inc. |
62 |
1This is the gain predicted by our Expected Gain model if
the stock breaks out. Expected Gains for all cup-and-handle stocks
are published on our site. |
Top Second
Chances |
Stocks that broke out this week and are still in
buyable range |
Category
|
Symbol
|
Company Name
|
Expected Gain1
|
Best Overall |
SPCB |
SuperCom, Ltd. |
78 |
Top Technical |
AAC |
AAC Holdings, Inc. |
59 |
Top Fundamental |
AAC |
AAC Holdings, Inc. |
59 |
Top Tech. & Fund. |
AAC |
AAC Holdings, Inc. |
59 |
1This is the gain predicted by our Expected Gain model
after the stock has broken out which uses the volume on breakout as
a predictive term. Because the model variance is +/- 38% the
expectation can be negative. |
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