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subscribed to our weekly newsletter. This newsletter summarizes the
breakout events of the week and provides additional guidance that
does not fit into our daily format. It is published each weekend.
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Prior editions of this newsletter with our valuable
Tips of the Week are available here. |
Weekly Commentary |
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This week I got an email from a subscriber saying:
"Ha-ha, yes it turns out
that your data does help significantly in picking tops. Don’t
know if it’s my additional intuition or pattern recognition of
my equations. But your
data is awesome! We backed off a little, but still up
40%." Emphasis mine.
That was nice, so let me brag a little. Last week I warned of a
bearish head and shoulders top and also drew attention to my
NASDAQ market signal that had turned to sell on August 13. There
was no brilliance on my part, I was simply looking at what the
technical indicators said.
So that's the value in subscribing to breakoutwatch.com. We are a
provider of information that aims to help you in making rational
investment decisions based on sound technical analysis. And the
value we offer just got better. The market is down and so are our
subscription fees - see our Top Tip below.
So what now? Well our trend indicators are all down, and are
likely to remain so. Watch them every day (they our published in
our daily update email) and if you are risk averse, don't go long
until they turn up. I suspect we will not return to the highs of
July in the near term as markets will continue to fret over the
Fed's next interest rate decision due September 17.
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Weekly
Breakout Report |
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Volatility Squeeze breakouts dominated the week with very few cup
and handle stocks able to climb out of their very deep handles. Of
the week's breakouts, none were under water by Friday's close and
the average gain for the week was a healthy 4.1%.
Breakouts for
Week Beginning 08/24/15 |
Brkout Date |
Symbol |
Base |
Squeeze |
BrkoutOut Price |
Brkout Day Close |
RS Rank* |
Last Close |
Current % off BOP |
Gain at Intraday High |
08/27/15 |
MDCO |
SQZ |
Y |
30.41 |
31.75 |
89 |
33.64 |
10.62 |
10.62 |
08/25/15 |
CVGW |
SQZ |
Y |
55.18 |
55.52 |
95 |
59.23 |
7.34 |
9.64 |
08/28/15 |
SPWH |
SQZ |
Y |
11.84 |
12.92 |
98 |
12.92 |
9.12 |
9.12 |
08/26/15 |
CVGW |
SQZ |
Y |
55.53 |
59.62 |
95 |
59.23 |
6.66 |
8.95 |
08/27/15 |
SRPT |
SQZ |
Y |
34.20 |
36.23 |
99 |
36.69 |
7.28 |
7.28 |
08/28/15 |
MDCO |
SQZ |
Y |
31.82 |
33.64 |
91 |
33.64 |
5.72 |
5.72 |
08/27/15 |
QURE |
SQZ |
Y |
24.66 |
25.23 |
97 |
25.77 |
4.50 |
4.5 |
08/28/15 |
DO |
HSB |
N |
23.25 |
24.29 |
15 |
24.29 |
4.47 |
4.47 |
08/27/15 |
HEES |
HSB |
N |
17.98 |
18.52 |
11 |
18.69 |
3.95 |
3.95 |
08/25/15 |
PETX |
SQZ |
Y |
17.03 |
17.46 |
95 |
17.64 |
3.58 |
3.58 |
08/28/15 |
VRTU |
SQZ |
Y |
50.82 |
52.34 |
95 |
52.34 |
2.99 |
2.99 |
08/28/15 |
IPHI |
SQZ |
Y |
23.29 |
23.88 |
93 |
23.88 |
2.53 |
2.53 |
08/28/15 |
JBSS |
SQZ |
Y |
53.23 |
54.48 |
96 |
54.48 |
2.35 |
2.35 |
08/27/15 |
DY |
DB |
N |
69.80 |
71.26 |
98 |
71.14 |
1.92 |
2.09 |
08/28/15 |
JAKK |
SQZ |
Y |
9.28 |
9.42 |
96 |
9.42 |
1.51 |
1.51 |
08/28/15 |
SPPI |
SQZ |
Y |
7.49 |
7.6 |
90 |
7.6 |
1.47 |
1.47 |
08/28/15 |
SRPT |
SQZ |
Y |
36.30 |
36.69 |
99 |
36.69 |
1.07 |
1.07 |
08/28/15 |
CPE |
CwH |
N |
8.83 |
8.91 |
81 |
8.91 |
0.91 |
0.91 |
08/28/15 |
CCS |
CwH |
N |
22.65 |
22.81 |
91 |
22.81 |
0.71 |
0.71 |
Weekly Average (19 breakouts) |
4.14 |
4.39 |
*RS Rank on day before breakout. |
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New
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Additional Value that we added this week |
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This Week's Top
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Tips for getting the most out of our site |
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|
Market Summary |
Overview of market direction and industry
rotation |
Index |
Value |
Change Week |
Change YTD |
Trend |
Dow |
16643 |
1.11% |
-6.62% |
Down |
NASDAQ |
4828.33 |
2.6% |
1.95% |
Down |
S&P 500 |
1988.87 |
0.91% |
-3.4% |
Down |
Best Performing Index
|
1 Week |
13 Weeks |
26 Weeks |
Year-to-Date |
NASDAQ Composite
2.6 % |
NASDAQ Composite
-4.77 % |
NASDAQ Composite
-2.72 % |
NASDAQ Composite
1.95 % |
Best Performing Industry (by
average technical score over each period)
|
1 Week |
3 Weeks |
13 Weeks |
26 Weeks |
Music & Video Stores |
Cigarettes |
Tobacco Products - Other |
Drugs Wholesale |
Most Improved Industry (by
change in technical rank2)
|
Electronics Stores
+ 66 |
Telecom Services - Domestic
+ 67 |
Tobacco Products - Other
+ 166 |
Tobacco Products - Other
+ 209 |
Charts of each
industry rank and performance over 12 months are
available on the site |
1The Market Signal is derived
from our proprietary market model. The market model is
described on the site.
2The site also shows industry rankings based on
fundamentals, combined technical and fundamentals, and on
price alone. The site also shows daily industry movements.
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Top
Breakout Choices |
Stocks on our Cup-and-Handle
list with best expected gain if they breakout |
Category
|
Symbol
|
Company Name
|
Expected Gain1
|
Best Overall |
CWST |
Casella Waste Systems, Inc. |
97 |
Top Technical |
CWST |
Casella Waste Systems, Inc. |
97 |
Top Fundamental |
PAYC |
Paycom Software, Inc. |
53 |
Top Tech. & Fund. |
PAYC |
Paycom Software, Inc. |
53 |
1This is the gain predicted by our Expected Gain model if
the stock breaks out. Expected Gains for all cup-and-handle stocks
are published on our site. |
Top Second
Chances |
Stocks that broke out this week and are still in
buyable range |
Category
|
Symbol
|
Company Name
|
Expected Gain1
|
Best Overall |
CPE |
Callon Petroleum Company |
83 |
Top Technical |
CCS |
Century Communities, Inc. |
61 |
Top Fundamental |
CCS |
Century Communities, Inc. |
61 |
Top Tech. & Fund. |
CCS |
Century Communities, Inc. |
61 |
1This is the gain predicted by our Expected Gain model
after the stock has broken out which uses the volume on breakout as
a predictive term. Because the model variance is +/- 38% the
expectation can be negative. |
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