Breakoutwatch Weekly Summary 07/13/19

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Weekly Commentary
Volatility Squeeze Breakout Backtest Available Again - Possible 84% gain in 2019 The NASDAQ started the week retreating from last Friday's high but was rejuvenated by Fed Chairman Powell's comments on Wednesday that were taken to mean that a rate cute of at least 0.25% will be made by the FOMC on July 31. The index continued to move upwards and closed at another new high on Friday, up 1%, although the move up was bested by the DJI that gained 1.5% which benefited from a 4.8% increase in oil prices. Briefing.com has an alternative take on the possibility of a rate cut as core inflation is rising: Fed officials have been pointing to weakening inflation metrics to justify the growing hopes for a rate cut, but economic data released this week showed a larger than expected increase in Core CPI (actual 0.3%; Briefing.com consensus 0.2%) and Core PPI (actual 0.3%; Briefing.com consensus 0.3%) in June. On a yr/yr basis, core CPI is up 2.1% while core PPI is up 2.3%. Meanwhile, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, core PCE, increased 1.7% yr/yr in Q1, which is a faster rate than what was seen when the central bank began raising rates at the end of 2015 (1.2%). The upward price moves were not matched by an increase in volumes, as is typical in the summer months, and so the number of confirmed breakouts fell to just 4.

New Features this Week
Our Volatility Squeeze Backtest has been unavailable for some time as the data source for running the backtest was corrupted. I have corrected that now and the backtest is again available. The image below shows a sample backtest run for 2019 using a tight trailing stop (3%) and a modest target gain of 10%. This results in limiting losses and taking profits early. The backtest shows a potential profit of 84%. Click on the image to see a full screen version and notice the constraints on the backtest. In summary Buy on breakout if Industry in top 50% of our industry technical ranking Sell at next open if breakout not sustained at market close (above BoP and 50 day average volume) Each day, set a trailing stop of 3% from last close Set a sell order for 10% above breakout price

Strategy Suggestions
Our latest strategy suggestions are here.

Breakouts Summary by Watchlist for Week Beginning 07/08/19
List	Breakouts	Avg. Gain
CWH	3	-1.15
SQZ	1	-3.47
HTF		0
HSB		0
DB		0

Breakouts Detail for Week Beginning 07/08/19
Brkout Date	Symbol	Base	Squeeze	Brkout Price	Brkout Day Close	RS Rank^*	Last Close	Current % off BOP	Gain at Intraday High
2019-07-09	IPHI	CWH	n	54.11	54.81	95	58.75	8.58%	9.06%
2019-07-08	VEC	CWH	n	42.77	43.92	96	41.96	-1.89%	8.74%
2019-07-11	TNDM	SQZ	y	65.99	67.11	98	63.7	-3.47%	6.68%
2019-07-08	CIR	CWH	n	47.10	47.22	93	42.32	-10.15%	1.49%
^*RS Rank on day before breakout.

Top Rated Cup and Handle Stocks as of Friday July 12, 2019
Symbol	BO Price	BO Vol.	Company	Industry	RS Rank	Last Close
CRMD	9.99	648,447	CorMedix - Inc.	Biotechnology	99	8.95
ZYNE	15.70	3,503,988	Zynerba Pharmaceuticals - Inc.	Drugs - Generic	99	13.64
SNCR	8.56	634,653	Synchronoss Technologies - Inc.	Application Software	94	8.11
VCEL	19.90	856,728	Vericel Corporation	Biotechnology	93	19.83
BBD	10.55	18,685,378	Banco Bradesco S.A.	Foreign Regional Banks	93	10.19
SNR	7.07	719,847	New Senior Investment Group Inc.	Processing Systems & Products	92	6.87
MOBL	6.39	1,388,540	MobileIron - Inc.	Application Software	90	6.23
AG	8.25	4,718,446	First Majestic Silver Corp.	Silver	87	7.80
BKS	6.95	4,052,346	Barnes & Noble - Inc.	Specialty Retail - Other	87	6.69
TACO	13.49	609,564	Del Taco Restaurants - Inc.	Restaurants	84	12.84
These stocks meet our suggested screening factors for our Cup and Handle Chart Pattern watchlist. See Revised Rules for Trading Cup and Handle Breakouts

Major Index Summary
Index	Value	Change Week	Change YTD	Trend¹
Dow	27332	1.52%	17.17%	Up
NASDAQ	8244.14	1.01%	24.25%	Up
S&P 500	3013.77	0.78%	20.22%	Up
¹The Market Trend is derived from our proprietary market model. The market model is described on the site here. ²The site also shows industry rankings based on fundamentals, combined technical and fundamentals, and on price alone. The site also shows daily industry movements.

Best Performing Index
1 Week	13 Weeks	26 Weeks	Year-to-Date
Dow Jones	S&P 500 3.26 %	NASDAQ Composite 18.26 %	NASDAQ Composite 24.25 %

Best Performing Industry (by average technical score over each period)
1 Week	3 Weeks	13 Weeks	26 Weeks
Insurance Brokers	Insurance Brokers	Foreign Utilities	Auto Parts Stores

Most Improved Industry (by change in technical rank²)
Home Health Care 29	Agricultural Chemicals 61	Manufactured Housing 201	Music & Video Stores 210
Charts of each industry rank and performance over 12 months are available on the site

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