Breakoutwatch Weekly Summary 12/05/20

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Weekly Commentary
50 Stocks Meet their Breakout Price + New Predictive Model

The three major indexes all set new highs this week with the NASDAQ again leading the way with a 2.1% gain. The market has a momentum all of its own as talk of a modest stimulus package and imminent vaccine delivery provide optimism that 2021 will see a strong recovery.

The gains in the indexes was reflected by the record number of stocks that met their breakout price this week (see table below) for an average gain of 2.3%. Of particular note were 5 breakouts from a High Tight Flag pattern with an average gain of 4.8%
NASDAQ Chart
Chart of the Week
CARVANA (CVNA)

Carvana is heavily advertised on TV currently and is another (relatively) new company operating in the cloud by selling cars on the internet. Profit taking after setting the CWH pivot appears to be over and CVNA is ready to move higher.
CARVANA Chart
New Features this Week
New Price Breakout Model

For several weeks since publishing my findings on the minimal importance of the 1.5 times average daily volume requirement for designating a breakout, I have been working on developing a model for predicting those CWH stocks that could meet and exceed their breakout price at the next session. I've reached the point now where the model can predict with 80% reliability which stocks at least close above their breakout price at the next session.

The table below shows the model results for 2019-2020 (to date). If a stock on the CWH watchlist met its breakout price on the next day after appearing on the list, it was categorized as a Pass, if then a Fail. The results show that of those stocks that actually gained a Pass, the model predicted 80% of them.


 Actual Fail Pass
Predicted Fail 66.70% 33.30%

Pass 19.90% 80.10%

Beginning next week, I'll publish each day the CWH stocks that the model predicts will meet the breakout price on the next trading day. This is the list as of Friday 11/4 for trading on Monday 11/07. The list is in highest probability order, but note that for any stock on the list there is a 20% chance that it will not meet its BoP at the next session. I'll say more about how to use this list in future.

Symbol BoP % Below BoP
CVNA 252.3 96.35%
GNMK 14.45 97.23%
PACK 12.07 98.09%
ISEE 7.05 98.01%
ATEC 11.51 98.52%
UNFI 18.45 99.35%
ALPN 10.34 95.45%
AMD 96.37 97.58%
CABA 15.79 98.35%
GEF 51.27 98.98%
FREQ 29.66 97.27%
CHWY 78.5 95.47%
NGHC 34.38 99.48%
NVTA 53.57 94.98%
CTS 33.01 97.88%
PRCP 7 99.86%
RDVT 27.26 96.44%
MESO 17.39 92.61%
CORT 24.22 97.23%
TXG 157.46 94.65%
COUP 335.95 94.70%

Strategy Suggestions
Our latest strategy suggestions are here.
Breakouts Summary by Watchlist for Week Beginning 11/30/20
List Breakouts Avg. Gain
CWH 25 1.28
SQZ 19 3.75
HTF 5 4.81
HSB
0
DB 1 6.45
Breakouts Detail for Week Beginning 11/30/20
Brkout Date Symbol Base Squeeze Brkout Price Brkout Day Close RS Rank* Last Close Current % off BOP Gain at Intraday High
2020-12-03 MIK CWH n 10.46 12.33 90 12.1 15.68% 21.32%
2020-12-03 ESTC CWH n 124.21 135 83 143.28 15.35% 16%
2020-11-30 PSTI SQZ y 9.59 10.11 91 10.83 12.93% 13.45%
2020-12-04 ALTM HTF n 44.00 49.66 95 49.66 12.86% 15.77%
2020-12-01 CENX CWH n 10.86 10.94 84 12.04 10.87% 11.79%
2020-11-30 RCUS CWH n 26.57 27.23 90 29.05 9.33% 9.56%
2020-12-01 PRTK CWH n 6.34 6.47 87 6.92 9.15% 12.07%
2020-12-04 IDYA SQZ y 14.30 15.6 88 15.6 9.09% 12.94%
2020-12-03 CRWD CWH n 155.00 161.19 92 167.26 7.91% 8.99%
2020-12-02 EXAS SQZ y 123.24 124.41 89 132.87 7.81% 10.47%
2020-12-02 FOCS SQZ y 39.60 39.98 85 42.42 7.12% 11.77%
2020-12-03 EXAS SQZ y 124.42 130.67 89 132.87 6.79% 9.42%
2020-12-01 MEDP DB n 129.07 131.08 79 137.39 6.45% 7.46%
2020-12-04 MGNX SQZ y 22.60 24 88 24 6.19% 7.04%
2020-12-03 FOCS SQZ y 39.99 43.41 85 42.42 6.08% 10.68%
2020-12-04 WLL CWH n 24.74 25.91 99 25.91 4.73% 5.46%
2020-12-03 CULP CWH n 14.97 15.25 82 15.66 4.61% 8.8%
2020-12-04 LEU CWH n 15.94 16.64 92 16.64 4.39% 11.97%
2020-12-04 CDNA HTF n 62.50 64.91 96 64.91 3.86% 4.46%
2020-12-04 ARNC HTF n 29.95 30.9 75 30.9 3.17% 3.94%
2020-12-03 CPRI HTF n 38.00 38.79 93 39.13 2.97% 5.05%
2020-12-04 TFFP SQZ y 15.40 15.8 96 15.8 2.6% 3.31%
2020-12-02 RDHL SQZ y 8.60 8.82 81 8.82 2.56% 3.37%
2020-12-03 PJT SQZ y 70.21 70.62 82 72 2.55% 3.01%
2020-12-04 VRNS SQZ y 123.06 126.11 80 126.11 2.48% 2.83%
2020-12-02 SLM CWH n 11.23 11.39 81 11.5 2.4% 2.89%
2020-12-02 DB CWH n 11.51 11.58 80 11.77 2.26% 3.91%
2020-12-03 NWL CWH n 21.60 21.77 80 22.03 1.99% 2.27%
2020-12-04 PJT SQZ y 70.63 72 81 72 1.94% 2.39%
2020-12-04 XPER CWH n 19.46 19.81 80 19.81 1.8% 1.85%
2020-12-03 XLRN SQZ y 116.78 118.53 87 118.85 1.77% 3.29%
2020-12-04 AVNS CWH y 44.85 45.61 82 45.61 1.69% 2.92%
2020-12-01 VG CWH n 13.37 13.4 81 13.59 1.65% 6.13%
2020-12-04 LOVE CWH n 33.48 33.99 94 33.99 1.52% 1.76%
2020-11-30 LAZY SQZ y 16.04 16.5 97 16.28 1.5% 9.29%
2020-12-04 BILL CWH n 124.50 126.23 88 126.23 1.39% 4.35%
2020-11-30 OMI SQZ y 24.92 25.76 97 25.22 1.2% 7.22%
2020-12-04 MOD HTF n 11.98 12.12 90 12.12 1.17% 3.01%
2020-12-04 LBRT CWH n 10.98 11.08 83 11.08 0.91% 1.73%
2020-12-04 BHLB CWH n 18.40 18.51 80 18.51 0.6% 0.6%
2020-12-04 GE CWH n 10.85 10.88 80 10.88 0.28% 0.74%
2020-12-04 XLRN SQZ y 118.54 118.85 87 118.85 0.26% 1.76%
2020-12-04 ALDX SQZ y 7.17 7.18 85 7.18 0.14% 3.35%
2020-12-02 PFSI SQZ y 58.99 60.49 86 58.67 -0.54% 3.31%
2020-11-30 ACH CWH n 9.28 9.82 87 9.18 -1.08% 7.22%
2020-11-30 CARV SQZ y 7.17 7.19 96 7.08 -1.26% 14.37%
2020-11-30 GMDA CWH n 7.09 7.2 85 6.97 -1.69% 1.97%
2020-11-30 CRON CWH n 8.81 8.85 84 8.63 -2.04% 3.86%
2020-11-30 PROF CWH n 19.48 19.94 89 18.84 -3.29% 9.24%
2020-11-30 OVID CWH n 6.43 6.84 84 2.68 -58.32% 8.55%
*RS Rank on day before breakout.
Top Rated Cup and Handle Stocks as of Friday December 04, 2020
Symbol BO
Price		 BO
Vol.		 Company Industry RS
Rank		 Last
Close
GOGO 11.95 4,088,950 Gogo Inc. Telecom Services 94 10.12
ATEC 11.51 2,063,580 Alphatec Holdings - Inc. Medical Devices 93 11.34
GNMK 14.45 1,379,937 GenMark Diagnostics - Inc. Medical Devices 93 14.05
MESO 17.39 842,186 Mesoblast Limited Biotechnology 89 16.10
ISEE 7.05 1,089,519 IVERIC bio - Inc. Biotechnology 87 6.91
UNFI 18.45 2,132,206 United Natural Foods - Inc. Food Distribution 87 18.33
SSSS 13.24 1,160,368 SuRo Capital Corp. Asset Management 86 12.13
CRON 9.15 8,938,029 Cronos Group Inc. Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic 84 8.63
CDXS 19.30 515,026 Codexis - Inc. Biotechnology 81 17.56
These stocks meet our suggested screening factors for our Cup and Handle Chart Pattern watchlist.
See Revised Rules for Trading Cup and Handle Breakouts
Major Index Summary
Index Value Change Week Change YTD Trend1
Dow 30218.3
 1.03% 5.89% Up
NASDAQ 12464.2
 2.12% 38.91% Up
S&P 500 3699.12
 1.67% 14.5% Up
1The Market Trend is derived from our proprietary market model. The market model is described on the site here.
2The site also shows industry rankings based on fundamentals, combined technical and fundamentals, and on price alone. The site also shows daily industry movements.
Best Performing Index
1 Week 13 Weeks 26 Weeks Year-to-Date
NASDAQ Composite NASDAQ Composite
10.17		 NASDAQ Composite
27		 NASDAQ Composite
38.91
Best Performing Industry
1 Week 3 Weeks 13 Weeks 26 Weeks
Solar
 Utilities - Renewable
 Grocery Stores
Most Improved Industry (by change in technical rank2)
Agricultural Inputs
50		 Aluminum
88		 Luxury Goods
119		 Luxury Goods
125
Charts of each industry rank and performance over 12 months are available on the site

 

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