Breakoutwatch Weekly Summary 02/26/22

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Weekly Commentary
New Average True Range Breakout Watchlist - See New Features After fears that sanctions on Russia after the invasion of Ukraine would have a catastrophic effect on the US economy receded, the markets made a strong turnaround on Thursday and the NASDAQ closed the week 1.1% higher. Sanctions were not imposed on Russia's oil and gas exports, which would have raised gas prices at the pump in the US and further exacerbated inflation. The top performing breakout this week was Silica Holdings Inc. (SLCA) with a 16.5% gain. Using the new ATR breakout (see below) watchlist, this could have been bought at the open on Feb. 14 for 10.1 for a gain of 40% up to Friday's close.

Chart of the Week
Block Inc. (SQ) Block Inc. closed above its upper ATR channel on Friday following two days of well above average volume and an earnings report that beat analysts' estimates. Block is potentially starting a turnaround after a 60% fall from its September high. Block includes payments processor Square as one of its subsidiaries. Following the earnings report, management provided an optimistic outlook for future earnings.

New Features this Week
Upper ATR Breakout Watchlist I developed this watchlist as a method of looking for stocks that have been beaten down and may be starting an upswing. It has proved profitable for me with several stocks, such as HRB and MRVI.The watchlist is accessed from the Long Position watchlist patterns menu. Average True Range (ATR) is a measure of the recent (in our case 14 day) volatility of a stock. In this watchlist we publish a list of stocks that have just broken out above their ATR. The 14 day ATR is viewable as a price band in our Technical Analysis Charts. The methodology is as follows: 1. Each day, calculate the 14 day ATR for all US stocks in our database with a close price of $5.00 or more. 2. For the current day, calculate the upper value of the ATR range. If the current date is t then upperATR^t = ATR^t / 2 + SMA^t where SMA^t is the current 14 day simple moving average. 3. Calculate the equivalent upperATR for day t-1. 4. If closet > upperATR^t and close^t-1 < upperATR^t-1 then we have an upperATR breakout candidate. 5. The ATR comparison date t to date t-1 tells us that volatility has increased beyond the average range, and also that the price has moved up but we don't know the strength of the upward trend. For that we turn to the Average Directional Indicator (ADX) and require that it be at least 25. To summarize, a stock is placed on the upper ATR breakout list when: close price is a minimum of $5.00 50 day average volume is at least 1million Close price has moved above above the upper ATR band ADX is at least 25. To illustrate these concepts consider H&R Block (HRB)at the start of the 2022 tax season. On January 28, The stock had risen on strong volume and closed just below the upper ATR band. The next trading day, January31, HRB closed just above the upper ATR, and the conditions to be placed on the Upper ATR Breakout watchlist were met. HRB could then have been bought at next open at $22.89. It went on to peak at 25.16 for a max. gain of 9.9%. Important Note: Unlike our other watchlists, we do not send email alerts for stocks on this watchlist as they have already broken out when placed on the list. The list is available after all processing for the day is complete and will be included on the Daily Email.

Strategy Suggestions
Our latest strategy suggestions are here.

Breakouts Summary by Watchlist for Week Beginning 02/21/22
List	Breakouts	Avg. Gain
CWH	14	0.37
SQZ	28	2.55
HTF	1	12.46
HSB		0
DB		0

Breakouts Gaining at Least 5% for Week Beginning 02/21/22
Brkout Date	Symbol	Base	Squeeze	Brkout Price	Brkout Day Close	RS Rank^*	Last Close	Current % off BOP	Gain at Intraday High
2022-02-25	SLCA	CWH	n	12.10	14.09	94	14.09	16.45%	16.45%
2022-02-23	BPT	HTF	n	10.59	11.03	99	11.91	12.46%	19.07%
2022-02-24	MAYS	SQZ	y	39.61	43.01	95	43.5	9.82%	10.2%
2022-02-25	BRY	SQZ	y	9.55	10.12	98	10.12	5.97%	6.28%
2022-02-25	JILL	SQZ	y	16.01	16.94	97	16.94	5.81%	5.87%
2022-02-24	INSW	CWH	n	17.07	17.61	81	17.96	5.21%	5.39%
^*RS Rank on day before breakout.

CwH Stocks Likely to Close above BoP at Next Session*
Symbol	Company	Industry	RS Rank	Last Close	BoP	% off BoP
NVGS	Navigator Holdings Ltd. O	Oil & Gas Midstream	89	10.27	10.45	98.28
EVRI	Everi Holdings Inc.	Gambling	93	23.92	24.23	98.72
PNBK	Patriot National Bancorp Inc.	Banks - Regional	98	16.4	16.58	98.91
MRC	MRC Global Inc.	Oil & Gas Equipment & Services	93	9.9	10.06	98.41
LITE	Lumentum Holdings Inc.	Communication Equipment	91	101.41	102.27	99.16
*These stocks were selected using our CWH price breakout model. This model selects stocks likely to close above the breakout price at the next session. When backtested over the three years beginning January 2019 until October 28, 2021, 80% of the stocks selected closed above their breakout price. This does not mean that on any day, 80% of the stocks selected will breakout, but it is the expectation over an extended period of time.

Top Rated Cup and Handle Stocks as of Friday February 25, 2022
Symbol	BO Price	BO Vol.	Company	Industry	RS Rank	Last Close
BTU	19.60	9,556,063	Peabody Energy Corporation	Thermal Coal	99	16.01
MRC	10.06	1,174,456	MRC Global Inc.	Oil & Gas Equipment & Services	93	9.90
VALE	18.15	46,897,037	VALE S.A. American Depositary Shares Each Represe	Other Industrial Metals & Mining	93	17.82
SXC	7.95	1,039,968	SunCoke Energy - Inc.	Coking Coal	92	7.83
BHR	6.50	759,085	Braemar Hotels & Resorts Inc.	REIT - Hotel & Motel	91	6.20
BSM	12.39	561,486	Black Stone Minerals - L.P.	Oil & Gas E&P	89	12.10
VOD	19.05	10,285,995	Vodafone Group Plc	Telecom Services	85	18.01
KYN	8.85	1,146,466	Kayne Anderson Energy Infrastructure Fund - Inc.	Asset Management	84	8.42
INN	10.58	877,080	Summit Hotel Properties - Inc.	REIT - Hotel & Motel	83	10.06
XHR	19.46	854,055	Xenia Hotels & Resorts - Inc.	REIT - Hotel & Motel	83	18.65
These stocks meet our suggested screening factors for our Cup and Handle Chart Pattern watchlist. See Revised Rules for Trading Cup and Handle Breakouts

Major Index Summary
Index	Value	Change Week	Change YTD	Trend¹
Dow	34058.8	-0.06%	-6.27%	Down
NASDAQ	13694.6	1.08%	-12.47%	Down
S&P 500	4384.65	0.82%	-8%	Down
¹The Market Trend is derived from our proprietary market model. The market model is described on the site here. ²The site also shows industry rankings based on fundamentals, combined technical and fundamentals, and on price alone. The site also shows daily industry movements.

Best Performing Index
1 Week	13 Weeks	26 Weeks	Year-to-Date
NASDAQ Composite	Dow Jones -4.57	S&P 500 -2.76	Dow Jones -6.27

Best Performing Industry
1 Week	3 Weeks	13 Weeks	26 Weeks
Oil & Gas Drilling	Oil & Gas Integrated	REIT - Residential	Solar

Most Improved Industry (by change in technical rank²)
Aerospace & Defense 0	Aerospace & Defense 0	Aerospace & Defense 0	Aerospace & Defense 0
Charts of each industry rank and performance over 12 months are available on the site

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